О влиянии Кигалийской поправки к Монреальскому протоколу на будущие выбросы гидрофторуглеродов в России

Abstract

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are anthropogenic greenhouse gases with high global warming potentials. Hydrofluorocarbons are subject to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, but these international agreements impose limits on aggregate emissions of all greenhouse gases in each of the participating countries, not specifically limiting either hydrofluorocarbon emissions or individual emissions of other greenhouse gases. This changed with the adoption of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 2016. The amendment provides for a phased reduction in the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons, i.e. a reduction in activities that result in emissions of hydrofluorocarbons to the atmosphere. The Russian Federation acceded to the Kigali Amendment in 2020. The article considers the atmospheric content of hydrofluorocarbons, the world and Russian dynamics and the structure of their emissions to the atmosphere. In Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC, emissions from HFCs use predominate (92.0% of the total emission in 2018), while emissions from production dominate in China, where the world’s major production capacity is concentrated. In Russia, prior to 2000, total HFCs emissions almost entirely originated from the chemical industry. Since 2000, emissions from the use of hydrofluorocarbons have increased rapidly in various applications, where HFCs replace the phasing-out ozone-depleting substances. In 2016-2018, the share of emissions from the use of HFCs in the total emission was between 43 and 61%. The authors have made a projection of hydrofluorocarbon emissions from their use in the Russian Federation in various industries and activities up to 2065. It is shown that if the consumption of HFCs remains at 2018 level their emissions stabilize in the first half of the 40s of the XXI century at about 30-40 Mt СО2-eq., 1.5-2 times above the current level. Provided that Russia complies with the Kigali Amendment, the growth of emissions will initially continue reaching their maximum in 2024-2028. After 2055, subject to efficient collection and disposal of HFCs from decommissioned equipment, emissions will stabilize at about 4 Mt СО2-eq. (25% of 2018 emissions). In the absence of collection and utilization of HFCs, the maximum is expected several years later, and stabilization will occur after 2060 at the level of 6 Mt СО2-eq.