Оценка профессионального заболевания на основе полной линейки исходов «отравление аммиаком — удушье — летальный исход»

Abstract

Within the framework of the factors — protection — employee system, the following line of possible outcomes «poisoning — suffocation — death» was considered and tested according to the degree of danger, a parametric model of the type «exposure — attenuation — susceptibility» was proposed for their standard description and application. As susceptibility parameters, it is proposed to take the experimental, statistical, or calculated values of the ammonia concentration, which, with a known level of confidence, determine the possibility of the occurrence of outcomes in the declared line. One or more ammonia concentrations measured with known accuracy are taken as exposure parameters in a particular system, taking into account the weakening of the employee protection. Based on the introduced parametric model and initial data, both on the expression of exposure and susceptibility in the form of random variables, and data on the efficiency of protection, a set of probabilities of outcomes of the declared line was calculated, which can be used to predict the risk of employee diseases in a particular system or production environment. In addition, it is shown that in the resulting assessment of the probable lethal outcome, both poisoning and suffocation of the worker are also considered. By protecting the worker and reducing exposure by attenuating it at levels between 1 and 0.1, the expected reduction in ammonia concentration results in a decrease in the probability of an employee death from 0.9177 to 0.000003. Moreover, it is shown that the acceptable values of the attenuation coefficient should be in the range of 0.1 or less. This level of attenuation is achieved by using local ventilation, diluting the concentration of ammonia in the work area with fresh air and (or) by using personal protective equipment (gas mask) by the employee.