Методика краткосрочных прогнозов расходов воды на реках бассейна Камы на основе использования модели HBV

Abstract

The experience of constructing a method for short-range forecasting of water discharge in the Kama River basin is described. The forecast method is based on the HBV-96 conceptual model of runoff formation in a watershed with optimized parameters, as well as on the algorithm for the correction of operational forecasts. It is shown that if the runoff formation model parameters are optimized and the forecast correction algorithm is applied, the model simulates variations in water discharge at gaging stations with high efficiency and can be used for operational short-range hydrological forecasting and for the evaluation of the hazard of expected hydrological conditions on the rivers. The implementation of the forecasting method allows obtaining water discharge forecasts for gaging stations in the Kama River basin with a lead time up to 3 days using meteorological forecasts with a corresponding lead time.