Abstract
Oil will remain the single largest energy source in the world for the foreseeable future, and a balance must be struck between global supply and demand. A serious malfunction of only one large oil producer can lead to a significant change in oil prices and the recession of the entire global economy. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical and empirical aspects of the mutual causality of oil prices and exchange rates, as well as to determine their influence on the development of the world economy. Methodology of the article. To complete this article, a comparative, economic and statistical analysis was used. Results. The article proves that the oil market is more inherent in a tendency towards regionalization rather than globalization. Factors affecting this process include macroeconomic conditions, the balance of supply and demand, the transformation of the regulatory component, changes in the cost structure and the significant influence of geopolitical components. The article justifies the fact that there is a certain strong direct connection between oil prices and exchange rates, but it is influenced by various geopolitical factors (for example, sanctions). Only 4% of the cost of oil is included in the price of gasoline, so when the price of oil falls, the price of gasoline does not decrease. Conclusions. A characteristic feature of the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates is the presence of bilateral mutual causality. Fluctuations in the dynamics of the oil industry are changing the roles of traditional and new suppliers. The oil market environment, which is a key commodity of our time, has a significant impact on world currencies.
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