Аналіз експериментальних даних, необхідних для синтезу математичної моделі прогнозування розповсюдження алергенних спор грибів Alternaria

Abstract

To predict the distribution of the allergenic fungal spores that have a negative effect on the health of a large number of people, it is necessary to synthesize predictive mathematical models that interconnect in time the concentration of allergenic fungal spores that spread as a result of the movement of air masses, which is the initial coordinate of the model, and the accompanying meteorological factors such as wind speed, air temperature, air humidity and a number of other factors that are input coordinates of the model. To determine and identificate the structure of the parameters of such predictive mathematical models, we need the results of an experimental study of the interactions between all these coordinates, which in their original form cannot be used directly to identify the above class of mathematical models, since they are nonstationary stochastic. In this paper, the following processing of the results of an experimental study of all these non-stationary stochastic coordinates characterizing the process of distribution of the allergenic fungal spores obtained on the basis of the Vinnitsa National Medical University, leads to such characteristics of these coordinates, which can then be used for synthesis of predictive mathematical models. These characteristics are stationary zonation of coordinates due to the transition from their measured values to their increments and correlation coefficients and autocorrelation and mutual correlation functions, calculated with regard to the increments of all the considered coordinates.