Российские энергоресурсы на рынках стран Японии, Республики Корея, Китая и Индии в новых условиях

Abstract

The article analyzes the main markets of the Asia-Pacific region from the perspective of assessing the niche of Russian energy resources: NEA-3 countries (Japan, the Republic of Korea, China) and India. Based on a synthesis of expert assessments from the leading research groups, it is shown that reduction in the size of the fossil fuel energy markets of Japan and the Republic of Korea is occurring at the fastest rate. Significant reduction in exports to these countries is predicted since these markets are traditional for Russia in the Asia-Pacific region. It was determined that in the current situation, the most promising in terms of export of Russian energy resources are India and China, whose role has increased many times under the conditions of sanctions restrictions imposed on Russia since 2022. It is shown that compensatory capabilities of the economies of China and India to compensate closed to Russia energy markets are limited. In the medium term there is a still high potential for increasing exports, in the long term this requires expansion of the transport infrastructure. However, despite all these limitations, it is possible to predict partial preservation of market niches in the markets of NEA-3 and India for the Russian fossil fuels. In the emerging hydrogen market, the niches of Japan and the Republic of Korea will likely be closed to Russia; in the markets of China and India, which focused on their own production, Russian products will most likely lose out in price competition.