Пять базовых закономерностей глобальной энергетики, «Зеленая сделка» как сдерживающие факторы развития горнодобывающих отраслей ТЭК

Abstract

As part of the Paris Agreement on climate change, Russia has made a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70% by 2030 (compared to the 1990 level) with account for maximum carbon sequestration capacity of forests and other ecosystems. Implementation of the Paris Agreement significantly extends the effects of the fundamental global energy sector trends on development of the energy producing sectors and results in reduced consumption of coal and other conventional energy sources. The authors identified the following five trends in development of global energy sector, i.e. increasing energy density, global energy transition, impact of local energy transitions on the global technological development, growth of energy density and labor productivity, formation of "carbon trap". The paper discusses the anticipated large technological leaps to be realized in the world economy by the middle of the XXI century. Measures and proposals on adaptation of the coal industry to the new conditions of the world economic development are presented. Among these, particular attention should be paid to the preparation of a new Coal Strategy-2050, which would include the development of a "stress scenario" of a possible reduction in coal consumption due to the decarbonisation of the global economy by 2050 and the implementation of hydrogen energy programmes by many countries.