ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ В РЕГИОНАХ РУССКОЙ РАВНИНЫ В ТЕПЛЫЕ ЭПОХИ ГЕОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО ПРОШЛОГО И СЦЕНАРНОГО БУДУЩЕГО

Abstract

The features of the Volga and the Don river runoff changes and the water balance of the natural landscapes of the Central forest steppe of the Russian Plain during the Late Holocene Optimum and scenario conditions of global climate warming in the current century were revealed. Paleoclimatic reconstructions based on data of spore and pollen analysis of fossil plants and on calculations carried out on the ensemble of global climate models of PMIP-II program, as well as scenarios of climate warming, performed on an ensemble of global climate models of CMIP3 and CMIP5 programs, were used. Hydrological changes were evaluated on the basis of the monthly water balance and SVAT models. It is shown that the most significant changes of the Volga and Don river runoff are detected in changing the nature of its intra-annual distribution. In studied periods, the notable increase in air temperature against a backdrop of insignificant changes of atmospheric precipitation in Central forest steppe conditions of the Russian Plain does not lead to any significant changes in the water balance components of forest and steppe landscapes in growth season.