Динамика финансовой хрупкости компаний нефинансового частного сектора Гонконга во взаимосвязи с ходом делового цикла

Abstract

This article examines the financial instability hypothesis in Hong Kong's contemporary economy, investigating whether the proportion of financially fragile firms rises during cyclical upswings as economic crises approach. Two criteria developed by Mulligan and Nishi were used to assess financial fragility in the private sector from 2006 to 2022. The Mulligan criterion was applied to 94 leading firms by capitalization, while the Nishi criterion was applied to the top 99 firms. Findings indicate that, prior to the Great Recession, the share of financially fragile firms—characterized by speculative or Ponzi financing—increased, peaking just before the crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the financial instability hypothesis is partially supported, the high proportion of financially fragile firms in 2016–2017 contradicts this hypothesis. Overall, our analysis shows that hedge financing regimes predominated among Hong Kong’s private companies. The relatively low share of financially fragile firms compared to those in Southern European countries can be attributed to the absence of austerity measures in Hong Kong, as local authorities did not attempt to address budget deficits due to their minimal levels. Additionally, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s policy to curb excessive bank lending during economic expansions contributed to the dominance of hedge firms. The tourism and transport sectors are the most financially fragile industries.