Эколого-экономическое моделирование в агромелиоративном земледелии в целях адаптации сельского хозяйства к транзитивным кризисам

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop a model that allows us to build formalized forecasts of the agro-reclamation industry development in the transitive space of its variables based on available information about the structure and patterns of elements interaction of this complex system. The basis for the devel-opment of the model in the study of conduct problem-oriented complex systems has become a cognitive approach, which allows representing the structure of any geosystems, including approaches to identify causal relationships between its elements and also to predict trends in the further development of the sys-tem. The cognitive approach in the study of complex systems involves solving an interconnected set of tasks of system analysis, such as identifying the object and the socio-economic environment in the form of a cognitive model, analyzing the cycles and directions of the cognitive model, analyzing controllability, stability, sensitivity, adaptability, scenario analysis, etc. Composed cognitive map representing a directed, weighted graph, where the vertices correspond to factors of the system, and the arcs — relationships be-tween them: G = <V, E>, where G is a weighted digraph, V is the set of vi vertices, which are factors of the system, E is the set of eij arcs, which reflect the relationship between the vertices i,j = 1, 2, ... k. The use of sign graphs device made it possible to create a model of formalized forecasts of the agro-reclamation industry development in a transitive space.