Разработка метода оценки рисков обеспечения железнодорожным подвижным составом государственных перевозок в условиях чрезвычайных ситуаций

Abstract

Purpose: The development of a method for assessing the risks of providing state transportation with railway rolling stock in emergency situations will create an effective method of transport support for state transportation. Purpose is to reduce uncertainties in the provision of public transportation by identifying the main causes of risks arising in the system of providing railway rolling stock, which include, inter alia, the transportation of goods for the needs of the EMERCOM of Russia. Methods: Comparison and analysis of indicators characterizing the results of the consequences of the occurrence of negative events in the system of providing state transportation with railway rolling stock; modeling of risk assessment of providing state transportation with railway rolling stock in emergency situations. Results: A method of modeling the occurrence of risks of providing state transportation with railway rolling stock in emergency situations is proposed; estimates of risk situations are obtained according to the options for choosing rolling stock, taking into account restrictions on the maximum radius of dislocation relative to the place of loading of equipment. Practical significance: Development of methods and recommendations to improve the efficiency of providing rolling stock for public transportation in conditions of uncertainty.