Вступление Финляндии и Швеции в НАТО: геополитические последствия для позиционирования России в Балтийском регионе

Abstract

The article examines Sweden’s and Finland’s motives for ending their long-time non-aligned policies and joining NATO after Russia had launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. The two countries’ decision is shown to be in the interest of the United States, which has always sought to fill the geopolitical vacuum reigning after the collapse of the opposing Soviet bloc and the Soviet Union itself. Finland and Sweden were the missing links for Washington and NATO in the Baltic region and Northern Europe as a whole. The study analyses the major consequences of these geopolitical changes for Russia in the Baltic region. These include the increasing disparity in armed forces with NATO, the substantial expansion of the border with the Alliance, the acquisition of new territorial and infrastructural capabilities by NATO to deploy reinforcements and military equipment from member countries to the region, the potential stationing of nuclear weapons on the territories of new member countries, the risk of blockading the Kaliningrad region, as well as the Gulf of Finland, and the Danish straits for Russian vessels. It is stressed that in the current circumstances, Russia needs to consider multiple scenarios in the Baltic region. On the one hand, it must safeguard its interests with minimal damage. On the other hand, it is crucial to steer clear of uncontrolled escalation of tensions with NATO, as it entails the risk of a military clash.