Стратегический анализ и оценка экспортного потенциала продукции регионального АПК на основе использования форсайт-технологий

Abstract

Abstract. The article substantiates that it is advisable to use foresight technologies as an applied tool for solving problems of forming strategic priorities for the development of the agro-industrial complex. The methodological features of the use of foresight technology in forecasting the production volumes of the agro-industrial complex at the regional level are disclosed. The principal task of the development of the Republic of Bashkortostan is to increase the economic growth rate to a level above the global average, which allows ensuring food independence and increasing the competitiveness of exported agricultural products. The study purpose is the practical application of foresight research in the planning of export of agricultural products of the regional complex for a strategic perspective. In the implementation of the study, the following methods were used: comparative analysis, scenario forecasting and strategic planning, and foresight technologies. The scientific novelty of the research is determined by the formation of a set of methodological and practical recommendations on the use of foresight tools in the implementation of the export potential strategic analysis of the regional agro-industrial complex products. The article presents an assessment of the resource potential of agricultural production under an extensive-intensive development scenario of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Results of the research are as follows: the foresight forecasting algorithm of production volumes of the regional agro-industrial complex, taking into account foreign economic activity development, is formed; the TOP-5 agricultural products exported by the Republic of Bashkortostan are highlighted; the results of forecasting indicators of gross grain harvest in the region for the long term and the projected export volumes of agricultural products in the region are presented. Determination of the resource potential for the production of agricultural products will allow creating an innovative model of economic development of federal subjects for effective foreign economic cooperation. It is summarized, that foresight-forecasting conclusions determine the «mainstream» trends of the regional agro-industrial complex functioning.