МОДЕЛЬНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПРОЦЕССОВ В ПОПУЛЯЦИЯХ ПУШНЫХ ОХОТНИЧЬИХ ЖИВОТНЫХ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ ЕВРЕЙСКОЙ АВТОНОМНОЙ ОБЛАСТИ)

Abstract

Among biological resources, hunting animals, including fur-bearing species, take a special place. The study of such populations dynamics is a crucial stage in fur harvesting planning and organizing. This work aims to describe and analyze by mathematical modeling methods the dynamics of fur-bearing animal populations inhabiting the Jewish Autonomous region. We consider the populations whose newborn individuals reach maturity by the next breeding season, for example, squirrel, white hare, Manchurian hare, raccoon dog, and weasel. The study is based on the discrete-time model of population dynamics with a simple stage structure. To take into account density-dependent regulation of population growth in the model, birth or survival rates of the immature class are represented by exponential functions of the total population size. To estimate the model parameters, we propose the use of data corresponding to the total population size. The obtained point estimates, based on this approach, are demonstrated to be within the range of biologically meaningful parameter values and exhibit the population dynamics similar to those observed in nature. Specifically, according to the model estimates, squirrel and hare populations are characterized by unstable dynamics with sharp annual fluctuations. In general, the proposed approach for parameter estimation allows for analyzing and modeling the age composition of the animal population, as well as determining demographic parameters that characterize the animal population dynamics based on the total population size data.