Оценка радиационных рисков злокачественных новообразований среди российских участников ликвидации последствий аварии на Чернобыльской АЭС

Abstract

The paper considers radiation risks of solid cancer incidence and mortality, as well as risk of leu-kemia incidence (other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia) among Russian Chernobyl cleanup workers (liquidators). The study of the cohort of liquidators carried out at the National Radiation Epidemiological Registry (NRER) was based on the follow-up data collected from 1992 over 2019. The size of the Chernobyl cleanup workers cohort exceeded 65 thousand people, their av-erage age at the time of entering the exclusion zone was 34 years, the average external gamma radiation dose received by liquidators during their cleanup work was about 0.133 Gy. Radiation-induced risks of solid cancer incidence and mortality in the study cohort were statistically signifi-cant, the risk magnitude rose with increasing the follow-up length. For the maximum follow-up period, from 1992 over 2019, the excess relative risk coefficient for solid cancer incidence was ERR/Gy=0.62, 95% CI (0.29; 0.98), and excess relative risk coefficient for solid cancer mortality was ERR/Gy=0.74, 95% CI (0.32; 1.22), the estimated coefficients were in good agreement with similar coefficients calcu-lated for the Russian liquidators with the use of ICRP radiation risk models. Non-parametric esti-mates of relative radiation risk within the same dose intervals for solid cancers and for leukemias in the cohort of liquidators were statistically significant for radiation doses above 0.150 Gy. For radiation doses below 0,150 Гр the linear non-threshold model is conservative, i.e. there was ev-idence for statistically significant radiation risk of leukemia incidence among liquidators during the first 11 years after the accident, from 1986 over 1997, ERR/Gy=4.41, 95% CI (0.24; 14.23). In later years, until 2018 there was no evidence of radiation-related risk of leukemia incidence. Out-comes of future studies will impact on optimization of radiological protection, development of reference levels for Russian general public exposure and improvement of the system for delivery of targeted medical care to people exposed to radiation.