СТРАНЫ ЗАПАДА И БОРЬБА С УГРОЗАМИ НЕСТАБИЛЬНОСТИ В АЗИИ И АФРИКЕ: ТЕОРЕТИКО-ПРАКТИЧЕСКИЕ АСПЕКТЫ

Abstract

Against the backdrop of increasing confrontation with a number of non-Western powers, nonclassical threats projected from armed conflict zones remain an urgent problem for the countries of the «collective West». The article examines the peculiarities of the Euro-Atlantic community’s approach to the use of political and military tools in the zones of armed conflicts in Asia and Africa. Methodologically, the article aims to deepen the provisions of conflict resolution theory as applied to armed conflicts. It shows the partial displacement of NATO and the EU member states from a position of subjects in the fight against threats of instability into objects for their projection in the early 2000 s and mid-2010 s, and analyzes the possibility of recurrence of this situation in the 2020 s. Three main stages of the settlement are distinguished, with a demonstration of opportunities for external participants in each of them. In the first stage, the main tasks are to secure a ceasefire, reconcile moderate pro-government and opposition forces, and critically weaken terrorist groups, which, depending on their strength, requires the choice of one or another form of forceful counteraction. In the second stage, the most important task is the implementation of agreements, including the deployment of international peacekeeping forces and security sector reform in the country of conflict origin. The third stage is to place the main burden of implementing the settlement on the authorities of the country of origin, its armed forces and law enforcement agencies, i.e. to «nationalize» the process. The «bottlenecks» in the actions of the countries of the «collective West» are noted - both of an internal (for the territory where the settlement takes place), military and foreign policy nature. Particular attention in this context is paid to the danger of refusing to build cooperative security schemes with non-Western powers.