Abstract
The predictability of river runoff is determined by the maximum lead time of satisfactory forecasts of water discharge obtained by the hydrograph extrapolation method. This indicator characterizes the smoothness of changes in water discharge over time and determines a possibility of using the Hydrometcentre of Russia’s automated system for preparation and daily streamflow forecasting all year long. The dependency between the predictability of river runoff and the main factors of its formation and regime is investigated. In total 18 regions within the territory of Russia are identified; for each of them a dependence between the streamflow predictability indicator and the area and average slope of the catchment is obtained. These regions cover 79% of the entire country. Calculated regional dependencies made it possible to estimate threshold values of the area and average slope of the catchment beyond which satisfactory forecasts are possible with a sufficiently long lead time (8–10 days), or only with a short lead time (1–2 days), or are impossible at all. Keywords: streamflow predictability, hydrograph extrapolation method, maximum forecast lead time, morphometric characteristics of catchment, calculated regional dependencies
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