Статистичний аналіз національного ринку літій-іонних батарей та впливу агресії рф на його розвиток

Abstract

The article focuses on the national market of lithium-ion batteries as an energy storage system. The impact of the consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine on the dynamics of its development is determined. The introduction substantiates the relevance of the chosen topic. The global and national context of market development is outlined, the importance of lithium-ion batteries as the leading technology of secondary batteries is emphasized. In the course of the study, the theoretical and methodological foundations of studying the market of energy storage systems are considered and an analysis of global trends in the development of the world battery market is carried out. Market segmentation is defined. The factors influencing the development of the world market, restraining or accelerating growth are analyzed. An analysis of the national market within the production chain has been carried out. The prospects for the extraction of raw materials, their primary processing, production of battery components (cathode, anode) are separated; the full cycle of production of batteries and final products is considered. The steps taken by Ukraine for the development of the market are considered. The strategic prospects for interaction with the European Battery Alliance (EBA) in order to create a closed ecosystem in the field of batteries within the European Union are highlighted. Data from UN Comtrade, a database of United Nations merchandise trade statistics, was used to statistically analyze imports of lithium-ion batteries into Ukraine. The value of the trend (as an additive component of the time series) of the national market has been allocated using local linear regression by the Friedman method. The practical implementation of this method was carried out using the R Studio software product. Absolute and relative parameters of market dynamics have been determined. The statistics for 2022 as the year of the beginning of the russian aggression against Ukraine are considered; the features and impact of the war on the dynamics of the development of the lithium-ion battery market are determined. It is determined that Ukraine demonstrated outstripping global market growth rates before the start of the war and abnormal consumption in 2022. The carried out research allowed to highlight the consumer nature of the national market, on the one hand, and the global prospects of Ukraine as a player in the production chain, on the other.