ОСНОВНІ ЗАСАДИ ФОРМУВАННЯ ТЕХНІКО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ПРОГНОЗНОЇ МОДЕЛІ ЕНЕРГОЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ РЕГІОНУ З ВИКОРИСТАННЯМ ВІДНОВЛЮВАНИХ ДЖЕРЕЛ ЕНЕРГІЇ

Abstract

The article analyzes the basic principles of forming a technical and economic forecast model of energy supply in the region using renewable energy sources. It is noted that the urgency of creating autonomous energy sources based on renewable energy sources is due to the need to optimize the costs of energy supply of facilities located outside the central energy supply systems, the requirements of legislation in terms of energy saving and improving the efficiency of using natural resources and possible tax restrictions on CO2 emissions, as well as the requirements for import substitution of products of foreign manufacturers with modern power plants of Ukrainian production. It is indicated that taking into account the fact that the production of electricity by this type of installation cannot do without additional backup sources, for power systems based on renewable energy, the concept is suitable – an energy complex that includes power plants located in close proximity to each other, designed to generate one or more types of energy, equipped with automated operation systems, which allows you to keep records and control over the rational use of energy resources. It is stated that energy complexes based on renewable energy resources can perform a number of important tasks in the organization of the production process. For the economic assessment of the feasibility of using renewable energy sources and determining the potential for implementing such technologies at industrial facilities, a forecast model of economic efficiency was developed, taking into account possible technological and institutional changes. When creating a forecast model of economic efficiency that takes into account possible technological and institutional changes, first, factors, criteria and their parameters were identified and described with the distribution of the significance (weight) of each of the values, relationship and dependence. It is determined that the first stage of the proposed model concerns finding out the possibility of applying energy supply technologies based on renewable energy sources in certain geographical conditions; at the second stage (regional), after selecting a promising area, mesoscale numerical modeling of wind flow at an arbitrary height above ground level is carried out; at the third stage, the economic efficiency of the project is reassessed, taking into account changes in forecast factors, and the results are compared, as a result of which the final option is selected and a decision is made on the feasibility of using renewable energy supply systems. It is stated that the model for choosing the optimal energy supply system for current and prospective projects using renewable energy sources should take into account possible technological and institutional changes.