ЗМІНА КЛІМАТУ ТА УКРАЇНСЬКІ МІСТА: ПРОЯВИ ТА ПРОЕКЦІЇ ДО КІНЦЯ ХХІ СТОЛІТТЯ НА ОСНОВІ RCP-СЦЕНАРІЇВ

Abstract

The features of the manifestation of climate change in the cities of Ukraine are investigated. It has been established that over the past decades mean annual air temperature in big cities has increased on 0.7–1.2°С, compare to the normal climatic period (1961–1990). The most significant increase in the mean monthly air temperature in the modern period in Ukrainian cities was recorded in January and in the summer months. An increase in the recurrence of tropical nights (when the air temperature did not drop below 20.0°C) and heat waves (HW) was revealed. In all studied cities located in different regions of Ukraine (with the exception of Kharkiv and Kyiv), the number of HW cases in the modern period (1991–2015) has increased two or more times compared with 1961–1990. The most vulnerable in the modern period to the effects of HW are the cities of the southern regions of Ukraine. No HW cases were recorded in Odessa during the period 1961–1990, and 14 cases have been identified in the modern period; the frequency of HW in Zaporizhzhya and Kherson increased from 3 to 22 cases. A change was found in the distribution of precipitation over the seasons and the nature of their precipitation: with a decrease in the number of cases of precipitation, their intensity increases. Based on RCP-scenarios, projections of air temperature for the studied cities were made until the end of the 21st century. According to the calculations for all scenarios, the average annual air temperature will increase gradually in all regions and cities of Ukraine and will increase on average from 2.0–2.5°C in the low-end scenario (RCP 4.5) to 5.0–6.0°C in the high-end scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, the results of the study indicate the need to analyze the vulnerability of Ukrainian cities to climate change and can be used both to carry out such assessment and to develop measures and plans for adaptation to climate change.