СВЕРХКРАТКОСРОЧНЫЙ ПРОГНОЗ ДОЖДЕВЫХ СЕЛЕЙ И ФОРМИРОВАНИЕ СЕЛЕЙ В БАССЕЙНАХ РЕК КИШИ И УЛКЕН АЛМАТЫ 21 ИЮЛЯ 2023 ГОДА

Abstract

The conditions for formation of rain-induced debris flows in the Kishi and Ulken Almaty river basins on July 21 2023 given in the paper. These debris flows was predicted using the ultra-short-term method for forecasting rain-induced debris flows, which developed by the RSE “Kazhydromet”. The method is basing on actual meteorological information that is as close as possible to the predicted phenomenon. The accuracy of the ultra-short-term forecast significantly exceeds that of the short-term forecast of rain-induced debris flows. The need to develop a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of rain-induced debris flows is associated with great moral and material damage caused by unfulfilled forecasts. The importance of forecasting rain-induced debris flows was evidenced by debris flows 1950 and 2006, which formed in the Ulken Almaty river basin.