Інтереси провідних воєнно-політичних сил як головні детермінанти розвитку безпекового середовища в контексті безпеки України

Abstract

Long-term foresight of the evolution of the security environment is the basis for further solving the problems of defense planning in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From a scientific view-point, this is a rather difficult problem that can be solved by a systemic representation of the security environment, proceeding from the assumption of the primacy of the interests of military-political forces. If these interests form and determine the security environment and are stable over a sufficiently long-time interval, then we can predict the security environment in the long term based on an analysis of the most generalized interests of military-political forces that we observe today. Applying this concept of foresight, the authors consider the interests of the leading military-political forces: the United States, China, the EU and Russia. The main long-term interest of the United States will remain the preservation of a unipolar world order with its own domination. In accordance with this, the United States is interested in resisting any attempts to increase the influence of other military-political forces. China will be the biggest problem for the United States. China launched a large-scale integration project "One Belt, One Road" aimed at getting closer to the EU and increasing own influence in Europe. If successful, this project will lead to the expulsion of the United States from the Eurasian continent. The interests of the EU have a predominantly economic dimension: access to commodity and consumer markets. At the same time, the interests of the EU are also determined by civilizational proximity to the United States. Russia supported the Chinese integration project. She is interested in strengthening the economy and restoring influence in the post-Soviet space. The interference of the interests of the leading forces paints a contradictory antagonistic picture of the future, which will be determined by the availability of the resources necessary to advance the interests. Today we see a tendency for the US to weaken. But neither China nor Russia will be able to project their strength over the entire Eurasian continent, which determines an increase in the potential for conflict in the future.