Управление портфелем инновационных проектов в условиях ограниченных информационных ресурсов методами нечеткой логики и имитационного моделирования

Abstract

Managing a portfolio of innovation projects is a complex task that requires special approaches and management methods. According to statistics, only 69% of innovation projects correlate with the strategic goals the company originally set for itself. Innovative projects involve working in an environment of constant variability, inaccessibility of information and high risk. The aim of the work is to propose a tool for managing a portfolio of innovative projects using fuzzy logic methods and simulation modeling to improve the performance of project managers and achieve the strategic objectives of the organization, and as a consequence, create a competitive advantage in the market. Research methodology is based on taking into account the theory of fuzzy logic and the theory of system dynamics to create a simulation model by Bass diffusion. 
 The article proposes a tool for managing a portfolio of innovative projects using fuzzy logic and simulation modeling, and provides recommendations for combining the proposed tool with modern PMIS and analytical systems that allow pre-project and post-project analysis, which allows you to manage and monitor the performance of the portfolio throughout the full cycle of its implementation.