Совершенствование инструментария выявления точек роста и путей модернизации регионального хозяйственного комплекса (на примере Республики Крым)

Abstract

Quite popular in the last years is the concept of growth points, which implies substantiation of ways of modernization of a region’s economy. In spite of the plenty of publications, dedicated to this issue, correct and universal methodology of identification of potential growth points of a region is still lacking. As far as forming growth points requires investing, their identification is related to determining econom-ic effect from investment in the sectoral context by means of calculating investment multipliers. For the regions of Russia, which fall behind the average in their level of economic development and where in many cases it is impossible to reveal statistically significant link between sectoral investment and gross added value, determining investment multipli-ers becomes problematic. This research aims at solving this problem. In case of absence of statisti-cally significant link between the above mentioned parameters, it is proposed to determine investment multipliers as ratio of regression coefficients b1 of sectoral trends of investment and gross added val-ue. The research provides a rationale for calculating additional multipliers from increase of investment into hypothetical projects of growth points and mul-tiplicative effect as a ratio of the basic and additional investment multipliers. Based on such multiplicative effects, the alternative sectoral structure of invest-ment and gross added value in economy of the Re-public of Crimea is calculated. The alternative value of investment multiplier is calculated; it exceeds the basic value 60 times. This excess reflects potential multiplicative effect from the change of the sectoral structure of investment in the region. The study exposed that the sectoral structure of investment projects proposals, listed on the investment portal of the Republic of Crimea, is much worse than the one calculated on the basis of investment multipli-ers.