Демографическая динамика Дальнего Востока России в условиях реализации национальных приоритетов: устойчивые тренды и ограничения роста

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the demographic dynamics of the Russian Far East in the context of its northern and southern zones during the implementation of an active regional policy on the accelerated socio-economic development of the macroregion by the federal authorities. A comparative analysis of the main demographic indicators for the period 2014–2021 showed that with general unfavorable trends in the natural dynamics of the population associated with the peculiarities of the age structure of the female reproductive contingent and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, the northern zone, compared to the south, retains higher parameters of demographic development. Using the distributed lag model, estimates of the relationship between changes in economic dynamics and the average annual population of the subjects of the Russian Federation of the selected zones of the Far East were obtained. Despite the positive sign of coefficients in the corresponding dependencies, the results of quantitative analysis revealed the absence of generation of significant incentives to increase the population of both zones by economic policy measures aimed at regional growth. Thus, on the example of the southern zone of the Far Eastern Federal District, it is shown that in order to achieve the population targets established by the Concept of the Demographic Policy of the Far East for the period up to 2025, a multiple increase in the gross regional product of the subjects of the Russian Federation is required. For example, in 2022 relative to the previous year, the corresponding increase should be from 2.7 (Primorsky Territory) to 4.8 times (Amur Region). The necessity of implementing additional measures of state policy, not related to achieving accelerated growth of the economy of the macroregion, to ensure positive population growth, has been proved