Методика оперативного учета стока в условиях зарастания русла (на примере реки Матыра в створе села Крутое)

Abstract

This paper presents the updated method of the real-time runoff calculation in conditions of river channel silting based on the method of optimal extrapolation. The Matyra river used as the example. The results of the analysis of the data obtained by observations of the Matyra River water regime during the period from 1994 to 2013 have been presented. We have analyzed all specific features of the hydrologic regime characteristics alterations under the influence of meteorological factors over the periods of the bed silting. The proposed decisions for real-time runoff account employ basic many-year dependence of the water discharge rates on water levels that have been exactly defined by the latest measurements of the water discharge rate through introduction of corrections that characterize changing of the bed passage ability of the year under consideration. These changes are calculated by the method of optimal extrapolation of the series of relative deviations from many-year water discharge curve calculated over the year under consideration. Assessment of the statistic characteristics of the relative deviation series such as auto-correlation function, dispersion and expectation value has been done to calculate weight coefficients in the optimal extrapolation formulas. Assessment of the proposals effectiveness has been carried out on the basis of the data of realtime and regime runoff accounting over the 2008-2013 period. Root mean square deviations from the regime accounting data were 5–10 %. The obtained results enable to make a conclusion on adequate reliability of the real-time runoff accounting data obtained with the use of the developed methods and to recommend it for real-time accounting of the small and medium-sized considerably silted rivers runoff.