Abstract
The article presents a formalized model description of the sequence of solving the problem associated with the assessment of the state of the integrated safety system at the enterprises of the oil and gas complex of Russia. The rational variant is substantiated concerning the set of elements (methods, stages, means) included in the content of the scientific and methodological apparatus proposed for use in a certain logical sequence for solving specific problems. Determination of the hazard probability indicator, which is assigned to the activity that became the reason of causing damage from hazard (accident or fire). This allows to consider the integrated safety system not as a limited, closed system, but capable of accumulating new knowledge about the impact of hazards on industrial and fire safety subsystems. Determination of the indicator of the weight coefficient of influence assigned to the event that caused damage from the hazard (accident and fire). Determination of the probability indicator of occurrence of a hazard, which is considered in addition to the weighting coefficient of influence, is used to obtain an a priori estimate of the end events. This allows to speak about the reliability of the research results, which directly depend on the accuracy of the data presentation (taking into account the error) and the adequacy of the methods used (their compliance to achieving goals). At the output, the problem is solved by determining the indicator of the weighting factor of influence assigned to the event that caused the damage from the danger, as well as by determining the indicator of the probability of danger, which is considered in addition to the weighting factor of influence to obtain an a priori assessment of the final events. The use of the proposed approach will allow to take measures in advance to minimize (exclude) the conditions for the occurrence of the considered hazards, as a result, to transfer the management of the safety system of the enterprises of the oil and gas complex of Russia to a new qualitative level.
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