Имитационная модель для анализа и оценки многолетнего и сезонного колебания элементов водного баланса бассейна реки Волги

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to improve the method of water balance of the river basin in terms of difficult-to-measure elements of water balance, such as total evaporation from the land surface and change in basin moisture reserves. For these purposes, the water balance equation of the river basin and the correlation equation connecting the patterns of formation of the river flow of the current period with the flow of previous years have been modified. A simulation model is presented, the structure of which includes systems of water balance equations and a correlation equation of a river basin. As a result of the joint use of these reference hydrological and meteorological stations, the results of simulation modeling were obtained and, on this basis, fairly long time series of water balance elements (EVB) of the Volga River basin in the formation zone to Volgograd were organized. Based on the obtained long series of EVB of the Volga River basin, a conjugate retrospective analysis of the interannual and seasonal variability of the EVB of the Volga River basin in the formation zone up to Volgograd was carried out.