Моделювання розвитку електроенергетичної системи України для обґрунтування Другого національно визначеного внеску щодо обмеження викидів парникових газів

Abstract

Ukraine is obligated to adopt Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement (NDC2) in 2021 for a period up to 2030 as a percent of 1990, requiring correct projection of green-houses gases (GHG) emissions first of all in key categories, one of that is heat and electricity production by thermal power plants (TPP) and combined heat and electricity production (CHP) which are burning organic fuel. The Ministry of environment protection and natural resources of Ukraine (MEP) proposed GHG reduction of 65% compared to 1990 which is about 3.2% lower compared to 2018, and there is a very ambitious goal taking into account desired rapid Ukrainian economic growth. To assess the reliability of this proposal the appropriate modeling GHG emission reduction from TPP and CHP was made and presented in the article. The modelling was made taking into account methodological approaches of TIMES-Ukraine modeling system, which is the basic tool for assessment of GHG reduction potential in Ukraine for MEP, and also alternative one used in BACS-RVE modeling tool, which was used for calculations for "Generation Adequacy report" which was developed by Ukrainian transmission system operator "Ukrenergo". The analysis of the modeling results showed that neglecting in the methodology used in TIMES-Ukraine the operation modes of generation and required levels of power grid balance reliability indicators does not allow fully adequately project power system development. The modeling results using BACS-RVE modeling tool showed that the reference case scenario of generation development (according to the TIMES-Ukraine) could be feasible under the condition that GHG emission tax should not be less than 100 EUR per tonne of CO2eqv, and potentially will cause the increase of electricity price. Another important result obtained using BACS-RVE is that GHG emission level for 2030 is higher compared to the reference case scenario, hence additional modeling and discussion of results are required to ensure well-grounded GHG emission projection which will allow reviewing NDC obligation for the power sector of Ukraine. Keywords: power system, greenhouse gases, modeling, load profiles, grid balance reliability