Abstract
With the aim of evaluating possibility and spread of biological terrorism, the paper concentrates on one of the scenarios of possible application of Siberian sore. The authors are modeling a situation when an automobile passes near the stadium “Petrovskiy” in Sank‐Petersburg and during the time period of 30 seconds spreads spores of Siberian sore. Modeling results are presented in the paper. The authors try to present classification of microorganisms as potential objects for biological weapon. Analysis of the possibility to use bio‐agents as biological weapon relied on some criteria, and they show that all bio‐agents can be divided into some groups. More than that, it is necessary to formulate the main criteria which could express probability to use bio‐agents as biological weapon. Thus objects with big concentrations of people are the most dangerous in the sense of attack by biological weapon. With the aim of determining a situation which appears in the case of terror acts with the use of bio‐agents, it is necessary to create a complex program which would enable to save time when deciding how to protect inhabitants and eliminate the consequences of biological contamination.
Highlights
Òåððîðèçì, âñå áîëåå íàáèðàþùèé ñèëó â ïîñëåäíèå ãîäû, ñòàíîâèòñÿ õàðàêòåðíîé ÷åðòîé ðàçâèòèÿ ìèðîâîé öèâèëèçàöèè â ïåðâîì äåñÿòèëåòèè XXI ñòîëåòèÿ
Åñëè òåððîðèñò, çàáëàãîâðåìåííî ïðîøåäøèé âàêöèíàöèþ, èëè ñìåðòíèê-øàõèä âî âðåìÿ ïîëåòà íà âîçäóøíîì ëàéíåðå íåçàìåòíî ðàñïûëèò â ñàëîíå êîðàáëÿ âèðóñû îñïû èëè ÷óìû, òî íåñêîëüêî ñîòåí íè÷åãî íå ïîäîçðåâàþùèõ ïàññàæèðîâ, çàðàçèâøèñü, ñàìè ÷åðåç îïðåäåëåííîå âðåìÿ ñòàíóò «õîäÿ÷èì» áèîîðóæèåì è ñîçäàäóò ïðèìåðíî òàêîå æå ÷èñëî î÷àãîâ çàáîëåâàíèé
Àíàëèç êðèòåðèàëüíî-ðåéòèíãîâîãî ïîäõîäà ê îöåíêå âåðîÿòíîñòè èñïîëüçîâàíèÿ áèîàãåíòîâ â êà÷åñòâå áèîëîãè÷åñêîãî îðóæèÿ ïîêàçàë, ÷òî âñå áèîàãåíòû ìîæíî ðàçäåëèòü íà òðè ãðóïïû
Summary
Âñå áîëåå íàáèðàþùèé ñèëó â ïîñëåäíèå ãîäû, ñòàíîâèòñÿ õàðàêòåðíîé ÷åðòîé ðàçâèòèÿ ìèðîâîé öèâèëèçàöèè â ïåðâîì äåñÿòèëåòèè XXI ñòîëåòèÿ. Åñëè â òå÷åíèå 15 ìèíóò âáëèçè îáúåêòà àòàêè íà âûñîòå 1520 ì ñ ïîäâåòðåííîé ñòîðîíû ðàñïûëèòü îêîëî 4 ìëðä. Cïîð ñèáèðñêîé ÿçâû, òî ìîæåò áûòü ñîçäàíà ñìåðòåëüíàÿ êîíöåíòðàöèÿ àýðîçîëÿ. Ïðîâåäåííûå ýêñïåðòàìè ðàñ÷åòû ïîêàçàëè, ÷òî äëÿ ñîçäàíèÿ êîíöåíòðàöèè â 4 ìëðä.
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