Abstract
The Black Sea sprat Sprattus sprattus phalericus (Risso) and temperature factor impact have been investigated. Statistical assessment of the long-term dynamics (1951–2019) of a relationship between the temperature factor and sprat mean weight in fishery catches used as a population quality characteristic has been performed. Pearson product-moment correlation and cross-correlation was evaluated, then data series was smoothed by the local polynomial regression and, finally, a linear model was fitted. The correlation test shows significant relationship between the temperature factor and sprat mean weight-at-age (mean weight in 3+ age group and SST in the port of Yalta resulted in r = -0.86, whereas average SST and average mean weight by age classes led to r = -0.74). The fitted linear model by smoothed data of average SST and average weight-at-age successfully passed diagnostics (R2 = 0.87, RSE = 0.34), with the equation: w = f(sst) = 22.23 - 1.263*sst. As a result, this study allows to emphasize the temperature factor as a main driver of the sprat fishery quality characteristics. The global warming effect, starting since the 1990’s has had a significant negative impact on the sprat population.
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