Особенности формирования и реализации пожароопасных обстановок в Урало-Каспийском регионе в аномально жаркие и засушливые годы

Abstract

The results of the analysis of the relationship between meteorological indicators of fire hazard and the actual development of wildfires are presented. The relevance of the study is due to the need to form a reliable understanding of the prerequisites and trends in the development of fires against the background of changes in the regional climate, accompanied by an increase in its anomaly. The main methodological approach to solving the tasks was to identify the features of the occurrence and spread of wildfires in some abnormally hot and dry years observed in the Ural-Caspian region – 2010 and 2021. The data obtained, reflecting the degree of fire danger and the vastness of the spread of fires, were compared with the average long-term (2001-2021) indicators and with longer data series. The study revealed the features of the seasonal development of fires during the firehazardous periods of the years under consideration in the whole region and taking into account its natural-zonal heterogeneity. Despite the fact that the occurrence of fires in general is stochastic in nature, some data indicate a predominantly agricultural nature of fires. Abnormally hot and dry years were not significantly distinguished by the degree of burning of steppe and desert landscapes; the exception was the extensive spread of fires in the forest and forest-steppe lowlands of the Southern Urals in 2021. The absence of statistically significant relationships between the indicators is evidence that weather conditions, although they form fire hazard conditions, are not decisive for their implementation. The occurrence and spread of fires depend on a complex combination and interaction of many natural and anthropogenic factors. In this regard, we believe that the introduction of effective methods of environmental management can minimize the level of pyrogenic impacts on steppe ecosystems, reduce the threat of damage and ensure the safety of the population.