ФОРМИРОВАНИЕ ТРЕБОВАНИЙ К ИНФОРМАЦИОННО-АНАЛИТИЧЕСКОЙ СИСТЕМЕ НА ОСНОВЕ ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИХ МОДЕЛЕЙ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ И ИМИТАЦИОННЫХ МОДЕЛЕЙ РАСПРОСТРАНЕНИЯ ВИРУСОВ

Abstract

Key trends in the development of a modern megalopolis, in the period of large-scale loads on the health care system, in the period of the spread of viruses, encourage the use of advanced methods and approaches to the organization of work in the field of health care. The object of the research is the city of St. Petersburg, the analysis of the main indicators of the load on the city's health care system has been carried out. The changes in the system processes caused by the long-term influence of coronavirus infection (COVID-19) are substantiated. The scientometric analysis reflecting the necessity of introduction of information systems and services in the health care system was performed. Analysis of models and methods (SIR, ARIMA, Holt-Winters) for the task of forecasting is presented and simulation models of virus spread are presented. The practical task of forecasting the number of hospitalizations of patients to estimate hospital bed capacity is presented. The use of forecasting and simulation modules of virus distribution in the information-analytical system is substantiated to make a decision on the estimation of necessary capacity of the health care system.