Взаимодействие России со странами ВРЭП: динамика торгово-экономического сближенияВзаимодействие России со странами ВРЭП: динамика торгово-экономического сближения

Abstract

The article assesses the long-term dynamics of trade and economic barriers in Russia’s interaction with the countries of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), as well as other important factors affecting Russian foreign trade. The analysis showed that RCEP countries accounted for more than a quarter of Russia’s foreign trade in 2022, mainly due to increased trade with China and a reduction in mutual tariff barriers. The estimates of the border effect obtained within the framework of the gravity model showed that trade barriers of the Russian economy with the RCEP countries had a long-term downward trend in the conditions of active geographical diversification of foreign economic relations of Russian business. Based on the discovered long-term trend of reducing barriers between countries, the author argues that, other things being equal, the isolation of the Russian economy in the Asia-Pacific region is unlikely. It is shown that restrictions on entering the Russian market for imports remain noticeable, while large-scale sanctions against Russia by Western countries limit the possibilities of intensifying Russian foreign trade by reducing bilateral barriers. In accordance with the estimates obtained, geopolitical factors restrained Russia’s trade with foreign countries, which was to some extent offset by the geographic diversification of foreign trade relations of Russian business in favor of «friendly» countries. It is shown that, despite significant progress in increasing Russia’s trade with the RCEP, the orientation of the Russian economy towards this group of countries is characterized by certain limitations: Russia does not have a significant positive trade balance with this group of countries; restrictions related to the possibility of expanding economic sanctions, including secondary ones, create significant obstacles to trade and economic interactions with the Russian market for most RCEP countries; the orientation of foreign trade towards China creates risks of negative effects from monopsony for Russia