Ставлення українців до збройного конфлікту як чинник стримувань і противаг у процесі становлення інституту народовладдя в Україні.

Abstract

The article attempts to scientific justification the dynamics of changes in public opinion on the conflict-generating nature of Ukrainian reality through a system of checks and balances in the context of the formation the institution of democracy in Ukraine.The authors’ conclusions are due to the Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada №727-IX of 18.06.2020 and were based on interviews and sociological researches of Institute of sociology of NAS of Ukraine, Fund Democratic initiatives by Ilko Kucheriv, Razumkov Center, Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, current legislation and own experience of applied political analysis and political consulting.The key trends in public attitudes towards armed conflict in the East of Ukraine, that are largely stable over 2014 – 2020 namely: the recognition of the Russian factor in the conflict, a critical assessment of national policy of Ukraine in its resolution and in socio-humanitarian work with the region, vision the future DNR-LNR as a part of Ukraine in the same politico-legal status as before, and, in case of impossibility of a full-scale military offensive, the willingness to compromise for the sake of a peaceful settlement. It is also proved that the armed conflict in the Donbass today does not fall in the top most important for Ukrainians problems (in contrast to 2014-2015) and tends to freeze and support the existing status quo. However, its hybridity will create a source of political instability and manipulations in Ukraine, including public opinion. It is recognized that a peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in the East of Ukraine according to the modern political situation is possible only with significant concessions of national interests of Ukraine. It has been proven that the institutionalization of democracy in Ukraine through a mandatory all-Ukrainian referendum, given the low level of legal awareness and empirical analysis, is premature.