ОБОСНОВАНИЕ НОВОЙ ПРИЧИННО-СЛЕДСТВЕННОЙ ТРАКТОВКИ РАЗВИТИЯ И ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ ЧРЕЗВЫЧАЙНЫХ СИТУАЦИЙ НА ПРИМЕРЕ АВАРИИ НА АТОМНОЙ ЭЛЕКТРОСТАНЦИИ «ФУКУСИМА-1»

Abstract

Using the example of the radiation accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant and subsequent measures to discharge tritium-containing aqueous coolant into the ocean, the adequacy of a new causal interpretation – the «triangle of emergencies», justifying and explaining scenarios of mutual transition of one type of emergency into another, as well as its graphical interpretation is considered. The issues of existing and possible consequences related both directly to the accident and to the discharge of the coolant are investigated. The results of calculating the change in the radioactivity of tritium in the volume of water planned for discharge for a period equal to ten of its half-life are presented. The prospects of applying the concept of an «emergency triangle» are considered, which are seen in the construction of an «emergency space», which is an array of emergency data collected for the purpose of analyzing, interpreting information, establishing cause-effect relationships and forecasting, as well as the principles of its formation.