Вихідні умови до формування середньострокових програм розвитку озброєння та військової техніки в Україні та підхід до їх аналізу

Abstract

In accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On Organization of Defense Planning” in Ukraine, medium-term planning for the development of weapons and military equipment is carried out through the creation of appropriate state programs. However, today there are practically no approaches or methods that provide an assessment of the conditions under which such programs can be created.The aim of the article is to develop an approach for analyzing the baseline conditions for the formation of medium-term programs for the development of weapons and military equipment inUkraine, which allows us to assess the needs and resources of the state.The initial conditions for the formation of medium-term programs for the development of weapons and military equipment are distributed according to the following components:conceptual provisions of the state's military policy for the development of weapons and military equipment;information about the possibility of the Ukrainian industry to create, produce and modernize weapons and military equipment;statistical data on the state of arms and military equipment, the need to ensure its maintenance in a combat-ready state;information on the development of weapons and military equipment in other states;information about the financial possibilities of the state and the trends of their changes in the medium term.The proposed approach assumes a consistent consideration of each of the components.At the first stage of the analysis, the proposed approach involves linking the conceptual provisions of military policy to the substantive content of the medium-term perspective. The result should be a list of specific models of weapons and military equipment that are planned to be created or modernized in the medium term.At the second stage of the analysis, an assessment is made of the capabilities of the Ukrainian industry to achieve the objectives. The result of such an assessment is a report on the possibility or impossibility ofUkraine's defense industry to independently implement its objectives in the medium term, based on available technical, technological and financial capabilities.The third stage provides for the adjustment of existing state programs in accordance with the assessment of opportunities. Programs that have been approved in the past are analyzed in terms of the reality of their implementationAt the fourth stage, a policy is developed to form a medium-term program, based on the results of the first, second and third stages. The result of the formation of such a policy is the decision to create, upgrade or purchase the necessary AME models and equip them with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.The proposed methodical approach is the basis for the development of detailed methods for the formation of medium-term programs for the development of weapons and military equipment. These methods should disclose in more detail and justified every step of the approach.