Методичний підхід до визначення варіанта стратегії та критеріїв досягнення спільних оборонних спроможностей Збройних Сил та інших складових сил оборони

Abstract

The article proposes one of the possible methodological approaches to the Interdepartmental Working Group to fulfill the task of the main stage of the defense review to determine the strategy of building defense forces, criteria for achieving their necessary capabilities, as well as strategic (operational) goals of their development.The main factors influencing the choice of strategy options and criteria for achieving joint defense capabilities of the defense forces are identified, indicators and criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of the strategy option are selected taking into account the priorities of state policy in the military, defense and military construction.A hierarchical structure of the variant of the development strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the defense forces is proposed, which contains a long-term goal and defined strategic goals (Level 1) for a period of more than five years. Each strategic goal should contain medium-term goals (Level 2) for a period of up to five years and short-term goals (Level 3) for a period of up to three years, which will characterize the intermediate results (performance indicators) of defense reform, as well as priorities and strategic tasks of the defense forces. At each level, it is suggested to choose from 3 to 7 goals.On the basis of strategic, medium-term and short-term goals, it is proposed to determine the tasks (Level 4), the implementation of which will be aimed at achieving the goals. The outlined tasks and measures will become the basis of medium-term state programs for the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the defense forces and short-term maintenance and development plans.It is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the variant of the development strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the defense forces according to the Hurwitz pessimism-optimism criterion. The strategy option will be considered effective provided that the value of the generalized criterion of effectiveness of the defense strategy development strategy, as well as the criteria of state defense capability, acquisition of necessary capabilities and NATO membership will increase by at least 30% from planned defense reform tasks and measures.The use of the proposed methodological approach, according to the authors, will improve the quality of development of strategic documents on the development of defense forces.