Выбор функции зависимости вероятности появления остаточных деформаций от нагрузок при определении оптимальных возвышений наружного рельса в кривом участке пути

Abstract

Purpose: the outer rail elevation in a curved section of railroad track according to the 2021 Guide for Determining the Elevation of the Outer Rail is determined by taking into account unmitigated accelerations, radii (permissible and admissible). Taking these indicators into account allows to determine the best values of outer rail elevations in terms of operational characteristics. But these elevations cannot be called optimal in terms of the amount of work performed during the current maintenance of the track in curves. To determine the optimal elevation, labor costs should be considered throughout the life cycle of the curved section. Since the occurrence of costs is mainly influenced by residual deformations during the life cycle, it was decided to consider the probability of residual deformations during the life cycle. Methods: the choice of the function of dependence of the probability of occurrence of residual deformations on loads was made on the basis o probability theory and regression analysis. The least squares method was used as a method of regression analysis. On its basis, functions with the greatest convergence relative to the function obtained using probability theory were selected. Results: the study found that dynamic loads generated during rolling stock movement on railway tracks follow a normal distribution function according to probability theory. Since certain dynamic loads during operation lead to residual deformations, the probability of such deformations can also be described using a normal distribution function. The resulting function for predicting the probability of residual deformations based on load factors was identified. Practical significance: the research findings can be used to determine the optimal elevation of the outer rail that minimizes labor costs during railway track operation