Особливості застосування вартісної форми моделі міжпродуктового балансу до визначення обсягових і цінових показників розвитку енергетичного сектора та інших галузей економіки країни

Abstract

The deformation of price system due to the inflated prices for energy resources, raw materials and supplies has led to an unreasonable rise of prices for products, a decrease in the competitiveness of country's economy, a reduction of the demand for products and, consequently, their output. These factors have led to an increase in the share of intermediate consumption in the structure of output and are one of the main reasons for low profitability, crisis of sales and increase in debt between domestic enterprises. In this context, the aim of this article is to study the possibility of applying macroeconomic indicators of the development of economy to solve the problem of determining output in kind, as well as equilibrium prices under conditions of limited information on the forecasts of final consumption, development of an optimization model of interproduct balance, intended for the analysis of change in the volumes and prices of economic system only in terms of cost indicators of its development, in particular, the structure and volumes of gross value added. In order to use the macroeconomic indicators of economy development at constructing a forecasting fuel and energy balance in the absence of information on final consumption, we proposed a system of conditions of optimization model, which uses the gross value added of branches to form restrictions on the volumes of output in physical units of their products. These conditions use the representation of subsystems of the distribution of outputs and inputs of the model of interproduct balance as a bilinear form in terms of the volumes of output in kind and equilibrium prices. Based on such forms, we constructed a method of determining outputs and prices to solve problems of forecasting and analyzing changes in country's economy according to macroeconomic indicators of its development, in particular, gross value added, in the absence of information on final demand for products. We proposed the structure of optimization model of interproduct balance based on the system of balance equations of the distribution of expenses in branches of economy in the cost form, which uses the indicators of gross value added for the solution of problems of forecasting the output of products in natural form and their volumes at substantial changes in the structure of gross value added. Keywords: fuel and energy balance, interproduct balance, model, optimization, forecasting, gross value added