Перспективи та проблеми розвиту об’єднаної енергосистеми України в умовах її приєднання до енергосистеми Євросоюзу і гіпертрофованого використання у її складі вітрових та сонячних електростанцій

Abstract

We investigated the key problems of the operation of wind farms within the Ukrainian Integrated Power System (IPS): determination of the type and capacity of regulators capable of ensuring frequency stability in the power system with large wind farms; determination of the competitiveness of wind farms in the electricity market operating in power systems with the provision of frequency requirements. We studied possibilities of technological base and presence of economic basis for the hypertrophied development of wind farms and solar power plants in the Ukrainian IPS, which is taking place now. Using the author's problem-oriented computer software, the processes of frequency and power regulation in the IPS of Ukraine with large wind farms were studied and it was found that their reliable operation is possible due to the use of powerful batteries. Based on this fact, with the use of a progressive methodology for determining the weighted average cost of electricity production during the life cycle based on market relations, it was established that none of the configuration options for the complexes in the wind farm - the regulator - the backup station can compete economically with traditional technologies even with high payment for greenhouse gas emissions. Using the results obtained, an analysis of the law "On alternative energy sources" (hereinafter - the law on "green" tariff) in the conditions of the IPS of Ukraine regarding wind and solar power plants was conducted. This law was not economically and environmentally sound as early as at the moment of its adoption (2003) and, at the same time, created large preferences for owners of wind and solar power plants (extremely high tariffs for their power plants; charging costs for regulating capacities to the account of the consumer, the principle of "take or pay" in relations between owners of wind and solar power plants and the electricity market; obligations of the energy system to give permissions for connection of wind and solar power plants without limitations, etc.). As a consequence, as of the end of October 2019, the total capacity of functioning and declared to be commissioned WPPs and SPPs was about 12.55 GW, and according to existing forecasts by the end of this year this indicator will increase to 18 GW. IPS of Ukraine will not be able to accept such capacity of WPPs and SPPs (sources with zero guaranteed capacity) (the autumn maximum in the specified period was 21.3 GW). To analyze the effect of the law on the “green” tariff for the future state of Ukrainian energy system and the electricity market, the total costs were calculated, which the consumer will have to compensate in the situation when 7.75 GW of WPSs and 4.8 GW of SPPs work in the power system (volumes, stated as of the end of October 2019). At the same time, consumer expenditures will annually amount to 3.565 billion US dollars for the received 18.166 billion kWh of electricity. An alternative is calculated when the same amount of electricity is produced at coal-fired power plants. To do this, only 3.45 GW of their capacities is needed, and the total consumer expenses will amount to 286 million US dollars, that is 12.47 times less than in the case with the use of wind farms and solar power plants. It is shown that in the current state of all the profits that the electricity market in Ukraine receives, it will not be enough for settlements with the owners of wind farms and solar power plants. Therefore, it is urgent to adopt a law that repeals all the preferences for the construction and operation of wind farms and solar power plants in the Ukrainian energy system. Otherwise, the energy market in Ukraine will go bankrupt, and the country's economy will default.