Transport Infrastructure Projects Research Articles

Influential factors for risk assessment and allocation on complex design-build infrastructure projects; the Texas experience

Introduction: The design-build (DB) delivery method is used to deliver increasingly complex transportation infrastructure projects associated with higher uncertainty. As such, allocating risks in the contract between the owner and design-builder becomes challenging and often leads to higher initial bids, increased contingency, or claims. Learnings from implementation worldwide have underlined the need for improving risk allocation in DB contracts. Most existing studies address risk allocation mechanisms to manage contingency at the contract level. Other studies have recognized the need for owners to adapt their processes to better allocate risks in DB contracts. This study explored the influential factors for risk assessment and allocation for complex DB infrastructure projects, addressing the opportunity to improve transportation owners’ risk allocation processes before the design-builder is selected and the DB contract is awarded.Method: The objectives of this work were achieved by utilizing empirical data collected through 20 interviews with Texas Department of Transportation and private sector experts. The interview data were analyzed using inductive and axial coding. Inductive coding allowed themes to emerge without a pre-existing framework, identifying six influential factors and six pertinent risks on complex DB projects.Results: These factors include the (i) Quality of DB teams, (ii) Level of up-front investigation, (iii) Limitations on the timing of letting, (iv) Design optimization opportunities, (v) Project-specific requirements, and (vi) Relationships with third parties. Through axial coding, the interaction and frequency between the factors and risks were also examined. The coded interactions demonstrated how the identified factors influence allocation for six pertinent risks including right-of-way acquisition, stakeholder approval, site conditions, permits and third-party agreements, railroad interaction, and utility adjustments and coordination. Findings indicate that the evaluation of these interactions can shift the risk allocation from baseline norms established by an agency to correspond to project-specific needs.Contribution: In contributing to the infrastructure project management, this is the first study to examine the factors that influence risk allocation in complex DB projects and examine interactions with pertinent risks, setting the foundation for optimizing allocation based on project-specific needs. In practice, the findings presented in this study can guide owners in adapting their allocation practices, managing, and developing their strategic plan for delivering complex DB projects. The findings can also assist contractors in pricing risks more efficiently and increase competitive bidding.

Toward a Better Understanding of the Construction Impacts of a Light Rail System in Montréal, Canada

Large-scale transport infrastructure projects generate long-lasting changes in the built environment and alter the lives of nearby residents. It is crucial to understand public perceptions of public-transit projects and associated construction impacts, as they influence the social acceptance and eventual success of such projects. To characterize the construction-phase experiences of a new light rail in Montréal, Canada—the Réseau express métropolitain (REM)—we analyzed data from 1,236 respondents from the Greater Montréal region who self-reported ongoing construction activities near their homes. This study employs an exploratory factor and k-means cluster analysis to group residents by their different experiences and perceptions of the REM and its associated construction impacts. The analysis returned five clusters with distinct construction experiences: construction-concerned travelers, REM-critical respondents, neutral travelers, REM enthusiasts, and rerouted travelers. Subsequently, the acceptability of the impacts during the construction phase on each cluster is assessed by comparing perceptions of the impact of neighborhood change on their quality of life and their intention to use the REM. Finally, we derive targeted policy recommendations to help promote increased social acceptability of light-rail transit (LRT) projects, including mitigating disruptions in construction zones, public information campaigns, and inclusive decision-making processes. Findings from this study can benefit policymakers and transport planners as they aim to reduce the disruptions associated with the construction of LRT systems and promote increased social acceptability.

Formulating Reliable Target Outturn Costs in Transport Infrastructure Projects: Insights From Senior Executives

Formulating Reliable Target Outturn Costs in Transport Infrastructure Projects: Insights From Senior Executives

In the Spotlight: Bat Activity Shifts in Response to Intense Lighting of a Large Railway Construction Site

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is a major form of anthropogenic pollution, disrupting nocturnal wildlife behaviour and ecosystem function. Large construction sites are typically located at the intersection of urban and natural areas, introducing intense lighting into previously dark natural habitats. This study examines the responses of bats to intense nighttime lighting at a major construction site associated with a linear transport infrastructure (LTI) project. We used passive acoustic monitoring to record bat activity and species richness at the construction site and in adjacent urban and natural areas with different lighting levels. Generalist species, such as Pipistrellus kuhlii and Nyctalus leisleri, were attracted to illuminated areas, likely due to increased prey availability. Conversely, sensitive species, such as those from the Myotis and Plecotus genera, along with Barbastella barbastellus, avoided illuminated areas, particularly the construction site. Species richness was significantly lower at the construction site compared to other environments, reflecting ALAN’s barrier effect on movements and habitat accessibility for more sensitive species. The findings highlight the ecological impacts of introducing ALAN to previously unlit natural environments, underscoring the urgent need for implementing ALAN mitigation strategies in urban planning and construction practices to protect biodiversity in urbanising areas.

Land Price Variability Assessment of a Transport Infrastructure Project in Pabna District, Bangladesh

Transport infrastructure development projects play a vital role in improving accessibility, which has dynamic effects on the regional economy as well as increases property values. This research aims to assess the land price variability in control and catchment areas before and after the Dasuria-to-Dhalarchar railway development project in Pabna district, Bangladesh. A set of independent variables was considered to measure the correlation between development project and land price through a questionnaire survey and focus group discussion. The impact of a railway project on land price was determined by the ordinary least squares method, after which the method was justified through Cook’s distance, P-P plot and scatter plot. The data analysis reveals a strong association between land price and distance to a central business district. The data shows that the land price increased significantly after implementation of the railway project with different intensities, as functional characteristics vary among selected stations.

Enhancing clay content estimation through hybrid CatBoost-GP with model class selection

Excessive soil swelling, triggered by variations in moisture content, is recognized as one of the most severe geo-hazards. Swelling Potential (SP) is closely correlated with Clay Content (CC), Plasticity Index (PI), and Activity (A = PI/CC), which are crucial input features for SP prediction models. Traditional methods for determining CC, such as the hydrometer and pipette methods, are labor-intensive and time-consuming. Employing easily accessible soil properties to predict CC directly not only enhances the modeling efficiency of SP prediction models but also mitigates the impact of laboratory test errors on model performance. This study leveraged two databases encompassing a broad spectrum of soil classifications and developed three ensemble learning models (RF, XGBoost, and CatBoost) to predict CC efficiently. Sequential model-based optimization algorithms (SMBO) were employed to effectively identify the optimal hyperparameters for these models. To further refine the model, the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method was utilized to ascertain the most influential soil properties. The findings revealed that the CatBoost model, optimized via GP, achieved the highest level of predictive accuracy. Three easily measurable soil properties — the percentage of soil particles passing through 0.075 mm and 0.425 mm sieves, along with the plasticity index — were identified as key predictors for CC. The estimated CC values were instrumental in constructing various empirical and machine learning models to predict SP, all of which exhibited exceptional performance. This research advances the modeling efficiency of SP prediction models, making it particularly relevant for rapid-response scenarios in transportation infrastructure projects.

Significant risks that trigger cost overruns and delays in urban rail projects: a typical case study of Vietnam

PurposeUrban rail projects are typically large-scale transport infrastructure projects (megaprojects) which have many potential risks that can influence the strategic goals of owners. However, there is a paucity of studies which explore the impact of risks on both “urban rail” project time and cost together considering quantitative assessments. Therefore, this paper focuses on investigating critical risks and quantifying such risk impacts on urban railway project schedule and cost in practice.Design/methodology/approachA combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods comprising semi-interviews with five experts and a questionnaire survey of 132 professional respondents is used. The data were modeled using Monte Carlo Simulation to predict the probability of project schedule and cost.FindingsThe results show that 30 risk variables are categorized into seven main groups which have significant impacts on both project time and cost. Outstanding five risk variables were highlighted as follows: (1) project site clearance and land compensation; (2) design changes; (3) physical project resources; (4) contractors’ competencies and (5) project finance. Such findings were supported by Monte Carlo simulation which predicted in the worst case that the project may suffer 11.03 months’ delays and have cost overrun with a contingency of US$287.68 million.Originality/valueThis study expands our knowledge about time and cost contingency of urban metro railway implementation across developing economies and particularly within the context of Vietnam. Policymakers will not only gain an understanding about risk structure but will also recognize the significant impacts of critical risk through risk impact modeling and simulation. Such an approach provides insights into risk treatment priorities for planners so that they can proactively establish suitable strategies for risk mitigation in practice.

The Limitations of EMSs in Comparison with the SDGs When Considering Infrastructure Sustainability: The Case of the Terzo Valico Dei Giovi, Italy

Infrastructure plays the largest role in the amount of annual emissions, so much so that investments promoted in the European Union must be subjected to a careful assessment of the sustainability of projects. The current landscape for assessing the sustainability of infrastructure is varied and complex. Considering the object of the assessment methodologies (such as the Environmental Impact Assessment or the Ecological Management System) and specific tools such as Envision, there is a shift from the infrastructure in itself and the company’s actions to promoting sustainable development. This article introduces a methodology to examine how tools used in environmental impact assessments of transport infrastructure projects, regardless of the actor implementing them, align with different sustainable development objectives. Moreover, it identifies the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a reference point that can be used in estimating the validity of these instruments. This paper also validates the methodology proposed in our study, by comparing the results obtained on the Envision model with those obtained from its application in a case study regarding the Terzo Valico dei Giovi, a railway infrastructure in Italy. The article shows that although the final target is in many respects the same, the nuances with which actors pursue sustainability through the different instruments vary.

How to Manage Supply Chains Successfully in Transport Infrastructure Projects

The objective of this research is to assess the influence of effective supply chain management on the success of transport infrastructure projects, considering the moderating effects of building information modeling (BIM) and environmental factors. Data were collected through questionnaires from construction projects and subjected to analysis to gain insights into the contributions of various supply chain management strategies to the overall performance of transport infrastructure projects, as well as how the presence of BIM and environmental considerations affect this relationship. The data were subjected to analysis using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). The results of this investigation revealed a significant impact of supply chain management practices in the construction industry on the performance of transport infrastructure projects, with BIM and environmental considerations acting as moderators in this association. This study holds both practical and theoretical significance, as it contributes to the existing body of knowledge by shedding light on the role of supply chain management in construction and its influence on the success of transport infrastructure projects while also exploring the moderating influence of BIM and environmental factors. The findings provide valuable perspectives for improving supply chain management practices in construction, thereby enhancing the outcomes of transport infrastructure projects.

Whether and When to Invest in Transportation Projects: Combining Scenarios and Real Options to Manage the Uncertainty of Costs and Benefits

Transportation infrastructure projects are a cornerstone of economic growth. However, the issue of whether new transportation infrastructure projects deliver the expected benefits has come under considerable scrutiny. The growing economic uncertainty and the tightening of budget constraints have made the design, evaluation, and selection of such high-cost projects particularly critical. There are disagreements as to how project decision-makers can evaluate the long-term costs and benefits of infrastructure projects. The objective of this article is to address such disagreements. We develop and apply an innovative methodological approach that combines real options with scenarios to help policymakers assess the costs and benefits of transportation projects. While these techniques have been widely adopted in corporations, there is little empirical evidence regarding their combined use by project decision-makers dealing with complex infrastructure projects. In this article, we fill this gap in the planning and project studies literature. We show that scenarios and real options can be very helpful in developing a more comprehensive understanding of long-term impacts of major infrastructure projects and thus in selecting the most relevant projects. Overall, our article assists the debate on the management of the uncertainty of long-term costs and benefits of infrastructure projects and helps cope with such uncertainty.

Identify social-economic factors used in cost-benefit analysis in transport infrastructure projects

Transport infrastructure development plays a vital role in economic growth, thus evaluating and selecting “right” project investment is considered a key for local government. Generally, practitioners and scholars use the tools and techniques of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for project evaluation but identifying cost-benefit factors considered social-economic aspects is a challenge for decision-makers. Thus, our research attempts to address this issue by reviewing the history of CBA development in the transport infrastructure domain from 1844 to 2022. Following the data published in more than one hundred studies, the authors provided a holistic picture of CBA development and a catalog of social-economic CBA used for transport infrastructure project evaluation.

Transformation of the multilevel system of transport infrastructure project management

The article is devoted to the development of theoretical and methodological provisions aimed at systemic transformation of the organization of a multi-level system of project management of transport infrastructure. The authors propose to use the method of multi-parametric assessment for groups of projects aimed at the development of transport infrastructure based on economic and environmental indicators, including determining the level of efficiency of the socio-innovative potential of transport, taking into account the degree of possible risks. The significance of the practical component of the study is to determine a set of conditions for the possible practical use of the methodology for managing groups of projects in the field of transport infrastructure considering the effectiveness of the implementation of the tasks and goals laid down in them. The method of organization of project management makes it possible to optimize the number of unrealized groups of projects in a multiple way, to carry out the procedure of ordering and multifactorial selection in the context of each hierarchical management level. The reliability of the results obtained was confirmed by the implementation of projects in the field of transport in Moscow, as well as the use of various mathematical methods.

ФОРМИРОВАНИЕ МЕХАНИЗМОВ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЫНКА ТРАНСПОРТНЫХ УСЛУГ В РЕГИОНЕ НА ПРИМЕРЕ РЕСПУБЛИКИ ТАТАРСТАН

The growth of innovative processes at the regional level, including transport infrastructure, forces us to more actively study the mechanisms of its development. Based on the results of the analysis, it becomes obvious that in modern conditions, when the needs of economic development of society are increasingly associated with the growth of transport infrastructure, fundamentally new approaches and tools are needed to ensure its sustainable formation. The object of the study is the elements of the transport infrastructure of the Republic of Tatarstan, which act as one of the driving factors and the main tool for the rapid development of the regional economy. The purpose of the study is to provide a reasoned substantiation of scientific and methodological approaches to modernizing the existing management system of the regional economy of the Republic of Tatarstan by developing recommendations for the development and reformatting of regional transport infrastructure. Research methods: data collection, their systematization and classification, statistical processing, comparative analysis, quantitative assessment of the infrastructural development of the region. The novelty of the research lies in the development of tools that ensure the effective development of transport infrastructure projects in the Republic of Tatarstan.

Investigating risk of public–private partnerships (PPPs) for smart transportation infrastructure project development

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to rank critical risks and determine major categories of risks to be considered by public–private partnerships (PPPs) investors when investing in “smart” transportation infrastructure. Such investment is sorely needed in many mega cities around the world currently suffering from serious impacts of traffic congestion, pollution and lack of usability of transport systems.Design/methodology/approachThe study used literature review focused upon smart transportation infrastructure projects financed by PPP arrangements to create a questionnaire which was refined by subject matter experts and then completed by 126 experienced respondents. Exploratory factor analysis was used to create major categories emerging from the collected data. Interviews with ten experts were used to validate the findings.FindingsThe most highly major ranked risks shared by these participants were lack of expertise in complex project implementation, political interference, lack of PPP project data and lack of a collaboration mechanism between government and private sectors. Factor analysis showed that in terms of risk likelihood, stakeholder engagement, implementation process issues, the natural environment, data-sharing and technology complexity emerged. In terms of risk impact, major factors were stakeholder engagement, trust versus resistance issues, the natural environment and factors concerning uncertainty.Originality/valueThis paper addresses a somewhat unexplored area, the risks involved in investing in PPP smart transportation infrastructure. Such infrastructure projects are embedded in their environments, and approaches using a complexity lens can emerge overriding risk concerns for investors when undertaking such projects.

Valuing Domestic Transport Infrastructure: A View from the Route Choice of Exporters

Abstract A key input to quantitative evaluations of transport infrastructure projects is their impact on transport costs. We propose a new method of estimating this impact relying on widely accessible customs data: by using the route choice of exporters. We combine our method with a spatial equilibrium model to study the effects of the massive expressway construction in China between 1999 and 2010. We find transport costs are 20% lower on expressways than on regular roads. The expressways construction increases aggregate exports by 10% and domestic trade by 14%. It generates 5.1% welfare gains, implying a 150% net return to investment.

Mitigating Traffic Gridlock in Apapa and its Effects on Nigeria’s Economy

This study evaluated the effect of Apapa Gridlock on the economy of Nigeria. It explored the importance of Transport Infrastructure Projects (TIPs) in the economic development of Lagos and the country at large. Empirical research was adopted to evaluate Transport Infrastructure Projects’ effects on societal transformations and economic growth of the nation’s economy. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire. The gathered dataset was analyzed using the Google Scholar Statistical tool and the results presented in simple graphs. The summary of the findings shows that 94% of the respondents had experienced Apapa Gridlock. 100% of the respondents agreed that it affects Lagos economy in general. While 55% posited Apapa Gridlock contributed to Lagos traffic. 76% of the respondents agreed that previous attempts did not record meaningful success on reducing Lagos traffic. The result of the T-test was lesser than 0.05, therefore, the null hypothesis was rejected and the research upholds that there is a positive relationship between Nigeria economy and Apapa Gridlock; because Apapa traffic slows down economic activities in Lagos which is the capital base of the country. The work concluded that reforms are critical to solving Apapa Gridlock and recommended the use of a comprehensive multi-tier PPP solution. Keywords: Grillock, Economy, Infrastructure, Mitigation, Project

Tales of creation: advocacy coalitions, beliefs and paths to policy change on the ‘energy efficiency first’ principle in EU

The co-legislators of the EU adopted in July 2023 a revised version of the Energy Efficiency Directive, implying that the ‘energy efficiency first’ (EE1) principle is made legally binding for member states, to apply in policy, planning and investment decisions exceeding euro 100 million each and euro 175 million for transport infrastructure projects. The EE1 principle complements two other guiding principles of EU energy and climate policy: cost-effectiveness and consumer protection. This article analyses the policy process and politics leading to the adoption of the EE1 principle as a legal institute in EU energy and climate policy. Policy core and secondary beliefs of four different advocacy coalitions are identified, and explained what are the paths to policy change. Lines of dispute among the coalitions related to (i) the purpose and meaning of energy efficiency policy, (ii) the size of projects covered (all projects or only very large projects) and (iii) which sectors to be covered (the public sector or both the public and private sectors). The adoption of the EE1 principle as a binding provision follows an ‘external shock’ to the political subsystem of energy efficiency, namely the Paris Agreement and the subsequent adoption of an EU climate law strengthening the EU climate targets for 2030 and 2050. In addition, it is a ‘negotiated agreement’ between the Council and the Parliament, undertaken as a deliberative problem-solving exercise rather than bargaining. The deliberative nature of the negotiations opened for ‘policy-oriented learning’ across belief systems in the subsystem.

Bridging the evidence gap in spatial planning

The article focuses on how the use of evidence in spatial planning could bridge the gap between vision and reality through the continuous evaluation of the spatial impacts of the proposed interventions. The introduction sets the theoretical, institutional, and practical context on how evidence is used to assess these impacts in relation to both the expected outcomes and the pursued policy priorities. The research section addresses these issues based on the empirical and methodological background derived from a series of successive studies carried out between 1999 and 2014. These studies are related to the establishment and operation of the spatial impact observatory of the Egnatia motorway, a major European transport infrastructure project in northern Greece. The results section introduces a methodological approach, succinctly referred to as the IRIS model in which spatial planning is conceived as an adaptive process, and the use of evidence aims to enhance its flexibility and preparedness in dealing with the uncertainties that arise from dynamic conditions, rather than relying solely on predetermined solutions. It comprises three key components: a theoretical model that simulates the relationship between transport infrastructure and spatial development, an intermediate data model in which raw data were constructed as evidence indicators, and a combination of inductive and deductive paths in which evidence is used to assess the anticipated impact of spatial plans and to evaluate the actual spatial outcomes after their implementation. Finally, the conclusions underline the value added of the IRIS approach as a comprehensive and integrative methodology that aims to improve the efficacy of spatial planning by establishing a link between theoretical models, policy objectives, and evidence-based decision-making.

From trench war to dialogue: An action-research study of the assessment of barrier effects in a transport infrastructure project

Transport infrastructure such as railways and motorways create barriers in local street networks, thereby reducing social contacts between people and limiting their access to shops and services. To address these barriers, a fact-based assessment of their effects is required. However, in current planning practice barrier effects are usually assessed through general descriptions and rough estimations. This paper presents an action research-based case study of what a newly developed set of barrier effect analyses contributed to the collaboration between the Swedish Transport Administration and the municipal council in a high-speed railway project. Interviews with participants (n = 22) showed that these analyses created a common language and offered concrete support, which increased trust between stakeholders and made it possible to reach a consensus about a planning alternative. Using the analyses entails interaction between practitioners and analysts throughout the work process, as the analyses and the impact assessments they provide support for are closely related. Among other findings, the importance of the street network emerged as the main variable in the analyses. There is a need to acknowledge this role and to create methods for adapting it to different planning alternatives of the infrastructure. Further, there is a need for more case studies on the collaborative processes of barrier effect assessments, as these are important for enabling the transition to more ecologically and socially sustainable transport systems.

Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Project Performance: Generating a Narrative of Context and Meaning

Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Project Performance: Generating a Narrative of Context and Meaning