Abstract Background: Benign breast disease (BBD) is a common breast biopsy finding encompassing a diverse spectrum of diagnoses. Breast cancer risk associated with many specific BBD diagnoses and their joint associations with breast density have not been extensively studied. We estimate the future risk of invasive breast cancer associated with specific BBD diagnoses typically categorized into the broad category of proliferative lesions without atypia (PWoA) and evaluate whether associations differ by breast density or by presence of calcifications. Methods: We included 1,313,943 women ages 40-79 years who underwent 5,282,063 mammograms in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium from 1996 to 2019 with no prior history of breast cancer. We fit a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate hazard ratios associated with each combination of PWoA BBD diagnoses, whether calcifications were present on biopsy, and breast density. We used classification trees to group combinations of PWoA diagnoses, breast density, age groups, and presence of calcifications with similar magnitudes of associations with 5-year risk of invasive breast cancer. Results: Compared with women with a PWoA BBD diagnosis without calcifications, presence of calcifications significantly elevated risk for breast cancer (HR=1.19, 95% CI = 1.02 to 1.41, P=0.03). Considering specific PWoA diagnoses, classification trees identified groups of women with higher and lower invasive cancer risk than expected risk for all PWoA combined. Among women ages 60-79 years with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts, the 2.6% of women with any PWoA diagnosis, except papillomatosis, were at high invasive breast cancer risk (5-year risk >2.5%) (Table 1). Among women ages 40-59 years with dense breasts, presence of calcifications with papillomas, usual ductal hyperplasia, columnar cell hyperplasia, or PWoA NOS diagnoses put these women at high risk (5-year risk >2.5%) compared to women with the same BBD diagnoses without calcifications who were at intermediate or average risk (1-2.49%) (Table 1). Among women ages 60-79 years with non-dense breasts, the 1.6% of women with papilloma, usual ductal hyperplasia, radial scar, or PWoA NOS diagnoses were at high breast cancer risk (Table 2). Among women ages 40-59 years with non-dense breasts, presence of calcifications with usual ductal hyperplasia or PwoA NOS diagnoses put these women at intermediate risk (1.67-2.49%) compared to women with these BBD diagnoses without calcifications who were at average risk (1-1.66%) (Table 2). Women 60-79 years with fatty breasts were at intermediate 5-year risk if they had papillomas, usual ductal hyperplasia, or PWoA NOS diagnoses. Women 40-59 years with fatty breasts were at low risk of breast cancer regardless of PWoA diagnosis (Table 2). Conclusion: Specific BBD diagnoses and the presence of calcifications can change a woman’s predicted 5-year breast cancer risk compared to broad BBD categories alone. This information could be incorporated into risk prediction models to improve model accuracy. Citation Format: Olivia Sattayapiwat, Karla Kerlikowske, Donald Weaver, Alexander Borowsky, Theresa Keegan, Brian Sprague, Diana Miglioretti. Advancing Evidence of the Associations Between Specific Benign Breast Diagnoses and Future Breast Cancer RIsk [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr GS01-06.
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