Index Of Multiple Deprivation Research Articles

Abstract PO4-17-05: Patterns of care: radiotherapy after breast conserving surgery and the use of endocrine therapy for screen-detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the UK

Abstract Background The use of adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) and endocrine therapy (ET) in the management of pure ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains controversial. We investigate how the use of adjuvant RT after breast conserving surgery (BCS) and use of adjuvant ET (in BCS and mastectomy patients) has changed over time. Methods A prospective cohort SQL database of 11,284 patients (the Sloane Project) diagnosed 2003-2012 with screen-detected DCIS in the UK was interrogated for use of adjuvant RT and ET over time and association with factors reported to be predictive of recurrence (patient age, DCIS nuclear grade, size, comedo necrosis, resection margins), as well as institution of surgery, travel time to radiotherapy facility, Index of Multiple Deprivation and outcome (provided by the National Disease Registration Service, NDRS). RT data by site were confirmed with more recent data from the National Audit of Breast Cancer in Older Patients (NABCOP), which looked at patterns of care and outcomes for women aged 70 years and over, compared with those aged 50-64 in England and Wales. Results Among the 7,949 women (70.6%) treated by BCS, post-operative adjuvant RT was given to 4,939 (62.1%); RT use after BCS increased over time (R2 =0.92; p< 0.01). RT use was associated with year of diagnosis (p < 0.01), younger age at diagnosis (p < 0.01), larger DCIS size (p < 0.01), presence of comedo necrosis (p < 0.01), higher nuclear grade (p < 0.01) and presence of microinvasion (p < 0.01). Adjusted analyses showed the most significant factor for RT after BCS was the surgery institution. Travel time to RT facility, Index of Multiple Deprivation and final radial margin were not associated with RT use. When compared with the more recent data from the NABCOP, a marked variation in radiotherapy use across hospitals remains. Ipsilateral recurrence rate varied significantly by hospital, with some of the difference associated with RT utilisation. ET was prescribed in 1313 women (12%), more often following BCS than mastectomy (p < 0.001), with significant variation by institution and a decline in the use of ET over time. Conclusion Marked geographic variation in the use of RT and ET after surgery for DCIS persists in the UK and is likely due to physician choice rather than other factors such as travel times to RT facilities. This is contributing to geographic variation in ipsilateral recurrence rates, suggesting the need for adoption of more authoritative guidelines to support clinical decision-making. Consistent national practice could provide auditable performance standards for adjuvant therapy of screen detected DCIS and contribute to more uniform patient care. Citation Format: Karen Clements, David Dodwell, Elinor Sawyer, Ramsey Cutress, Nisha Sharma, Abeer Shaaban, Alastair Thompson. Patterns of care: radiotherapy after breast conserving surgery and the use of endocrine therapy for screen-detected ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in the UK [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO4-17-05.

THE IMPACT OF SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS ON OUTCOMES FROM TREATMENT FOR FEMOROACETABULAR IMPINGEMENT

There is little known about how patient socioeconomic status impacts clinical outcomes in hip preservation surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between indices of multiple deprivation, funding provider (NHS Funded or Private Funded) and clinical outcomes following surgery for femoroacetabular impingement (FAI)The study analysed the data of 5590 patients recorded in the NAHR who underwent primary hip arthroscopic treatment for FAI between November 2013 and July 2023. Records were matched to the UK National index of multiple deprivation using the lower layer super output area. Using iHOT12 score, patient reported outcome measures were analysed at base line and 1 year following surgery.2358 records were matched to LLSOA deciles. Between the lowest (most deprived) 3 deciles and the highest (least deprived) the average baseline iHOT12 score was 28.98 (n=366) and 35.33 (n=821). The proportion of patients receiving treatment through NHS funding compared to independent funding for the most deprived, 292 (90%) 37 (10%) respectively compared to the least deprived 515 (70%) and 244 (30%) respectively. At 1year, iHOT12 scores for each group were 51.64 (29.1 SD) compared to 61.5 (28.06 SD) respectively.The study demonstrates that patients from lower socioeconomic backgrounds had poorer baseline and one-year post-surgery iHOT12 scores compared to those from higher socioeconomic strata. Furthermore, a higher reliance on NHS funding was observed among the most deprived, while more affluent patients predominantly opted for private funding. These findings underscore the significant influence of socioeconomic status on both the quality of healthcare received and recovery outcomes in hip preservation surgery, calling attention to the need for more equitable healthcare solutions.

Effectiveness of the Sanofi/GSK (VidPrevtyn Beta) and Pfizer-BioNTech (Comirnaty Original/Omicron BA.4-5) bivalent vaccines against hospitalisation in England

The Sanofi/GSK AS03-adjuvanted (VidPrevtyn Beta) vaccine and the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA (Comirnaty Original/Omicron BA.4-5) bivalent vaccine were offered to adults aged 75 years and over in England from 3rd April 2023. This is the first time an adjuvanted COVID-19 vaccine has been administered as part of a UK COVID-19 vaccination programme. In clinical trials, antibody levels generated were comparable with mRNA vaccines but there are no real-world data on the effectiveness or duration of protection. We used a test-negative case-control study design to estimate the incremental vaccine effectiveness of the Sanofi/GSK and Pfizer bivalent BA.4-5 boosters against hospitalisation amongst those aged 75 years and older in England. Cases (those testing positive) and controls (those testing negative) were identified from the national COVID-19 PCR testing data undertaken in hospital settings. The study period included tests from 3rd April 2023 to 27th August 2023. Tests were linked to the COVID-19 vaccination register and to the national hospital admission database, restricting to those with an acute respiratory infection coded in the primary diagnosis field. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using multivariable logistic regression amongst those who had last received an autumn 2022 booster given at least 3 months prior. The test result was the outcome and vaccination status the exposure. Analyses were adjusted for week of test, gender, age, clinical risk group status, care home resident status, region, index of multiple deprivation, ethnicity, influenza vaccination status and recent COVID-19 positivity. There were 14,169 eligible tests from hospitalised individuals aged 75 years and older; 3005 cases (positive tests) and 11,164 controls (negative tests). Effectiveness was highest in the period 9-13 days post vaccination for both manufacturers at about 50%; 43.7% (95% CI, 20.1-60.3%) and 56.1% (95% CI, 25.2-74.2%) for Sanofi/GSK and Pfizer BA.4-5, respectively. There was evidence of waning with a reduction to about 30% for both manufacturers after 5-9 weeks. The longest time interval post vaccination for which we were able to estimate effectiveness was 10+ weeks post vaccination, at which point vaccine effectiveness was 17.6% (95% CI,-3.6 to 34.5%) and 37.9% (95% CI, 13.2-55.5%) for the Sanofi/GSK and Pfizer BA.4-5 boosters, respectively. Both boosters provided good protection against hospitalisation amongst older adults. The finding that the adjuvanted vaccine targeting the distant Beta strain had similar effectiveness to the bivalent mRNA vaccine targeting more closely matched Omicron sub-lineages is notable and highlights the need for further real-world studies into the effectiveness of vaccines from different vaccine platforms and formulations in the presence of matched and unmatched strains. No external funding.

P046 The influence of deprivation in the outcomes of Psoriatic Arthritis within the UK - utilising Outcomes of Treatment in Psoriatic Arthritis Study Syndicate data

Abstract Background/Aims Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a chronic inflammatory arthropathy, which affects approximately 30% of patients with psoriasis and is associated with a high degree of morbidity. The introduction of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) revolutionised treatment strategies for patients with PsA, however response is not universal. Deprivation and its associated risk factors may impact the initiation of and response to treatment with bDMARDs. There is limited data exploring the effect of deprivation on disease response to biologics in PsA. Psoriasis patients with a higher socioeconomic status have been shown to be more likely to respond to biologics, to our knowledge this has not been investigated in PsA. This study aimed to assess the impact of deprivation on initiation of and clinical response to biologic DMARDs. Methods Patients commencing a bDMARD were recruited to the UK prospective observational study Outcome of Treatment in Psoriatic Arthritis Studies Syndicate (OUTPASS REC ref:13/NW/0068). Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), the official measure of relative deprivation in England, was the exposure of interest. Subjects were ranked based on their IMD and split into the 20% most deprived (deciles 1-2), middle 40% (deciles 3-6) and 40% least deprived (deciles 7-10). This was done to aid analysis as IMD weightings provide greater differentiation among the least advantaged areas with fewer distinctions for less deprived areas. Treatment response was measured using changes in DAS28/PsARC, analysed using multivariate linear regression and multivariate logistic regression, respectively. Response was measured at three months as NICE guidance advises review of biological therapies at this time. Results There was no difference in the distribution of patients between the three groups (most deprived=138, middle deprived=207, least deprived=193). There were no statistically significant differences in the time from diagnosis to starting biologics in the most deprived group compared to the middle (p = 0.62) or least deprived p = 0.42) groups. There was no statistically significant difference in treatment responses between the groups. DAS28 change and PsARC improvement at three months remained similar between the most deprived, the middle deprived (p = 0.71, p = 0.08) and least deprived groups (p = 0.81, p = 0.22). Conclusion There was no difference in the distribution of IMD in patients recruited to OUTPASS, suggesting that the study is inclusive in recruiting across IMD subgroups. There was no difference in time from diagnosis to starting bDMARD therapy or response to treatment across the deprivation spectrum. These findings suggest that the NHS in England is performing its role of providing care according to need and regardless of circumstance. The study assesses deprivation in the context of free healthcare and may not be applicable to fee-paying healthcare systems. Further research is required to determine the relationship between deprivation and other outcomes, including work instability, in PsA. Disclosure M. Lyon: None. S. Zhao: None. A. Barton: Member of speakers’ bureau; speaker fees from Chugai-Roche and Galapagos. Grants/research support; grant funding from BMS, Pfizer, all unrelated to the work presented. H. Chinoy: Corporate appointments; Advisory Board member for Astra Zeneca, Pfizer, Argenx, Galapagos; Data and Science Monitoring Board chair for Horizon Therapeutics.. Consultancies; Consulting for PTC Therapeutics. Member of speakers’ bureau; fees as a speaker for GSK, UCB. M. Jani: None. J. Bluett: Grants/research support; research grant award from Pfizer and travel/conference fees from UCB, Fresenius Kabi, Pfizer and Eli Lilly.

P161 Self-reported barriers to exercise from a national United Kingdom systemic lupus erythematosus cohort

Abstract Background/Aims Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are more inactive than the general population. Regular physical activity (PA) positively impacts many health parameters, including cardiovascular health. To better understand patient barriers to leisure time PA we conducted a national survey of patients with SLE in the UK. Methods An online survey was disseminated via LUPUS UK social media platforms between 5/05/2023 and 28/10/2023. Participants self-reported demographic data including postcodes. Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) were used to define socioeconomic deprivation and were split into quantiles, where quartile 5 represents participants living in 20% least deprived areas in England. Categorical and continuous data were analysed using Fisher’s exact test and Mann-Whitney U test respectively. Results There were 249 individual responses. Table 1 describes the cohort demographics alongside response data. On a 0-10 scale (very unsatisfied to very satisfied), 171/244 (70%) of participants rated their satisfaction with their amounts of leisure time PA as ≤ 4. The most commonly reported barriers to PA were fatigue (221/249, 88.8%), pain (155/249, 62.2%) and lupus-related symptoms/flares (145/249, 58.2%). Dislike of exercise was reported by < 10% of cohort (22/249, 8.8%). When asked to identify the primary barrier to PA, 119/244 (48.8%) reported fatigue. Lack of motivation (40/244, 16.4%) and knowledge about exercise (18/244, 7.4%) were other predominant barriers. Concern around injury differed between ethnic groups (p = 0.016). Other barriers did not differ by sex, ethnic group or socioeconomic deprivation. Participants reporting lack of time were younger with a median age of 45 (35-53) versus 54 (43-63) years, p = <0.001. Patients reporting fatigue, pain and self-consciousness had higher BMI in kg/m2 (27.7 [23.6-32.3] vs 23.4 [20.8-28.2]; 28.7 [23.8-33.1] vs 25.4 [22.6-28.8]; 31.4 [27.9-38.4] vs 25.8 [23.1-30.2]), p = <0.001. Lupus-related symptoms/flares and concern that PA may worsen lupus were reported by participants with a shorter disease duration in years (8 [3-17] vs 12 [4.5-24] p = 0.002, and 7 [2-15] vs 10 [4.5-23] p = <0.001 respectively). Conclusion 70% of patients were dissatisfied with their level of leisure time PA. Fatigue and pain were the most commonly reported barriers to PA. Reported barriers differ between patients highlighting the need for personalised exercise programmes for patients with SLE. Disclosure A. Baranskaya: None. A.J. Wadley: None. J. Reynolds: None.

P012 Health inequalities in the diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis

Abstract Background/Aims Patients with chronic diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), from socially deprived backgrounds are known to have more severe disease, comorbidity and higher mortality rates. This study used National Early Inflammatory Arthritis Audit (NEIAA) data submitted by Lancashire and South Cumbria Foundation Trust to ascertain if social deprivation influences time to diagnosis and treatment escalation onto a high-cost drug (HCD). Methods Patients diagnosed with an inflammatory arthritis were recruited to NEIAA over a five-year period (May 2018 to March 2023). Information on demographics, patient postcodes, duration of symptoms prior to referral, GP referral time and rheumatology waiting time were analysed. Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) was derived from patient postcodes and patients divided into three groups based on IMD deciles. Patients with deciles 1-3 were grouped as most deprived, deciles 4-6 as middle and deciles 7-10 as least deprived. A case note review of a subgroup of patients who had been on treatment for 2-5 years was undertaken to investigate whether IMD decile was associated with treatment escalation onto a HCD. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics on Stata. Results were adjusted for confounders including age and gender. Results A total of 265 patients with RA were included, mean age 60 years, 63% female and 10% from ethnic minority groups. There were 31%, 25% and 44% in the most, middle and least deprived groups respectively. There was a higher proportion of patients from minority ethnic backgrounds in the most deprived group (most 21% vs least 3%). Symptom duration at time of presentation to the GP was greater than 3 months in 57% vs 48% of patients in the most and least deprived groups, respectively. Median was used to compare the GP referral times and rheumatology waiting times as there were outliers in the dataset. The most deprived group had longer GP referral times (most 16 days vs least 7 days); however, median rheumatology waiting time was similar across the three groups (most, middle and least deprived 27, 24 and 25 days respectively). There was no difference in escalation onto a HCD across the three groups. Conclusion Patients from the most deprived areas presented later and took longer to be referred. However, time to being seen in the rheumatology clinic and escalation onto a HCD was not found to be associated with social deprivation. Exploring this further on a national level will help understand if social deprivation is influencing care elsewhere. This work supports the need to focus more resource on raising public awareness in more deprived areas. Disclosure S. Jeyaratnam: None. S. Fish: None. S. Horton: None. A. Madan: None. C. Rao: None. E. MacPhie: None.

A service evaluation of more than 1 million self-funding adults attending a community weight management programme.

Scaled interventions are required to address levels of overweight and obesity and reduce health inequalities. Little data is available on the effectiveness of community weight management programmes for participants self-selecting to attend across different socio-economic backgrounds. This analysis investigates 3, 6, and 12-month outcomes of adults joining a real-life community weight management programme. Weight, attendance and Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data from all fee-paying adults joining Slimming World in 2016 were collated. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics to determine predictors of weight loss. Mean BMI of 1 094 676 adults (7.6% male) was 33.0 ± 6.4 kg/m2. Mean % weight change at 3, 6, and 12 months was -5.0% ± 3.6%, -5.9% ± 5.2%, and -6.0% ± 5.8%. Those attending 75% sessions achieved greater weight loss with mean weight losses at 3, 6, and 12-months of 7.7% ± 3.3%, 11.3% ± 5.2%, and 14.1% ± 7.5%, respectively. Effect sizes from comparison of weight change between deprivation deciles were negligible, with similar outcomes in the most and least deprived deciles at 12-months (-5.7% ± 5.9% vs. -6.2% ± 5.9%). This service evaluation of more than 1 million adults attending a community weight management programme found they were able to achieve and/or maintain an average 6% weight loss at 12 months, with high attenders achieving >14% loss. Men and those with higher levels of deprivation were accessing the support and achieving significant weight losses. Slimming World as a real-life, scalable weight management programme is well placed to help adults manage their weight and address health inequalities.

COVID-19 inequalities in England: a mathematical modelling study of transmission risk and clinical vulnerability by socioeconomic status.

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major inequalities in infection and disease burden between areas of varying socioeconomic deprivation in many countries, including England. Areas of higher deprivation tend to have a different population structure-generally younger-which can increase viral transmission due to higher contact rates in school-going children and working-age adults. Higher deprivation is also associated with a higher presence of chronic comorbidities, which were convincingly demonstrated to be risk factors for severe COVID-19 disease. These two major factors need to be combined to better understand and quantify their relative importance in the observed COVID-19 inequalities. We used UK Census data on health status and demography stratified by decile of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which is a measure of socioeconomic deprivation. We calculated epidemiological impact using an age-stratified COVID-19 transmission model, which incorporated different contact patterns and clinical health profiles by decile. To separate the contribution of each factor, we considered a scenario where the clinical health profile of all deciles was at the level of the least deprived. We also considered the effectiveness of school closures and vaccination of over 65-year-olds in each decile. In the modelled epidemics in urban areas, the most deprived decile experienced 9% more infections, 13% more clinical cases, and a 97% larger peak clinical size than the least deprived; we found similar inequalities in rural areas. Twenty-one per cent of clinical cases and 16% of deaths in England observed under the model assumptions would not occur if all deciles experienced the clinical health profile of the least deprived decile. We found that more deaths were prevented in more affluent areas during school closures and vaccination rollouts. This study demonstrates that both clinical and demographic factors synergise to generate health inequalities in COVID-19, that improving the clinical health profile of populations would increase health equity, and that some interventions can increase health inequalities.

Inequalities in sexual and reproductive outcomes among women aged 16–24 in England (2012–2019)

BackgroundWomen aged 16–24 in England have a high burden of sexual and reproductive morbidity, with particularly poor outcomes among people living in more deprived areas (including racially minoritised populations). This...

The impact of multiple deprivation on the management of vestibular schwannomas.

While some factors have been well-shown to affect the decision-making in treating patients with vestibular schwannomas (VS), little is known on the role of deprivation. Our objective was to assess the effect of socioeconomic background on the management of patients with VS. This retrospective cohort study included 460 patients with sporadic VS from West of Scotland. The postcode-based, multifactorial Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) was used to assess the socioeconomic background of each patient. We performed a multivariate analysis including tumour size, growth and patient age with management modality (observation, stereotactic radiotherapy, microsurgery) being the main outcome measure and outcome (need for additional treatment) an additional measure. We found no significant difference in the demographics, tumour characteristics and primary treatment choice between patients with different SIMD scores. In addition, there was no statistically significant difference in the growth occurrence rates following first-line treatment (p = 0.964) and in the second-line treatment choice (p = 0.460). Multiple deprivation does not affect decision making in patients with VS in the examined cohort. This is probably linked to the centralisation and uniformity of the service and might not necessarily be applicable to other health services without centralisation.

Assessing PM2.5 exposure bias towards deprived areas in England using a new indicator

In many countries higher concentrations of harmful air pollutants coincide with more deprived areas of society, where prevalence of health impacts associated with air pollution are greater. However, the impact of polices aimed at mitigating air pollution on the bias in exposure across deprivation groups rarely feature in policy development.We introduce the Indicator of Exposure Bias (IoEB) to the UK Integrated Assessment Model to quantify this bias, providing a method for comparing different scenarios and sectors. We analyse the bias in exposure to PM2.5 concentrations across deprivation levels within England currently and for future scenarios, and by sectors. While England's Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and the Health domain are used as measures of deprivation here, the indicator can be applied to any pair of spatial socio-economic status and environmental exposure metrics.An IoEB of 0.88 µg.m−3 was calculated for the 2018 baseline, indicating a bias in exposures towards more deprived areas ranked using the IMD. All future scenarios considered here lead to reductions in population exposure and a reduction in the bias towards more deprived areas, with the greatest reduction of 59 % achieved by focusing on urban sources of primary PM2.5. The total bias in exposure towards more deprived areas is mitigated by an opposite bias for the transboundary contribution, therefore the bias in exposure of total PM2.5 does not accurately reflect that associated to UK anthropogenic emissions. The bias varies significantly between sectors, with non-industrial combustion and road transport the greatest contributors.Reaching England's 2040 PM2.5 exposure target is likely to deliver substantially greater health benefits for the more deprived members of society than the less deprived, reducing health inequality. The bias is sensitive to the measure of deprivation used, demonstrated using the Health domain.

Association of ethnicity and socioeconomic status with health outcomes in women with gestational diabetes: Clinical practice research datalink cohort study

AimsTo investigate in women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), differences by ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the incidence of recurrent GDM, type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension, and depression. MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study including 10,868 women diagnosed with GDM in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) between January 01, 2000 and November 05, 2018. Linked data were obtained for Hospital Episode Statistics and the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We estimated incidence rates and hazard ratios, by ethnicity and socioeconomic status. ResultsDuring a follow-up of 58,479 person years (mean (SD): 5.38 (3.67) years), the crude incidence was 9.67 (95 % confidence interval: 9.30–10.00) per 100 person years for recurrent GDM, 3.86 (3.70–4.02) for depression, 2.15 (2.03–2.27) for T2D and 0.89 (0.81–0.97) for hypertension. South Asian ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of T2D compared to White (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.65; 1.34–2.05) and Black ethnicity was associated with a greater risk of hypertension (2.93; 1.93–4.46). Black and South Asian ethnicity were associated with a reduced risk of depression compared to White: 0.23 (0.13–0.39) and 0.37 (0.29–0.46), respectively. Incidence rates were higher for all conditions with increasing deprivation level. ConclusionsThe risk of health complications in women with a prior history of GDM differs by ethnicity and socio-economic status, suggesting the opportunity for targeted assessment in the years following pregnancy. These findings may inform future guidelines on screening for health outcomes in women with GDM.

Socioeconomic inequalities in accumulation of multimorbidity in England from 2019 to 2049: a microsimulation projection study

There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population. We used primary care data for adults in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database between 2004 and 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), to model time individuals spent in four health states (healthy, one chronic condition, basic multimorbidity [two or more chronic conditions], and complex multimorbidity [three or more chronic conditions affecting three or more body systems]) by sex, age, IMD quintile, birth cohort, and region. We applied these transition times in a stochastic dynamic continuous-time microsimulation model to Office for National Statistics population estimates for adults aged 30-90 years. We calculated projected prevalence and cumulative incident cases from 2019 to 2049 by IMD quintile, age group (younger than 65 years vs 65 years and older), and years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years. Under the assumption that all chronic conditions were lifelong, and that once diagnosed there was no recovery, we projected prevalence of multimorbidity (basic or complex) increases by 34% from 53·8% in 2019 to 71·9% (95% uncertainty interval 71·8-72·0) in 2049. This rise equates to an 84% increase in the number of people with multimorbidity: from 19·2 million in 2019 to 35·3 million in 2049 (35·3 million to 35·4 million). This projected increase is greatest in the most deprived quintile, with an excess 1·07 million (1·04 million to 1·10 million) cumulative incident basic multimorbidity cases and 0·70 million (0·67 million to 0·74 million) complex multimorbidity cases over and above the projected cases for the least deprived quintile, largely driven by inequalities in those younger than 65 years. The median expected number of years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years in 2019 is 15·12 years (14·62-16·01) in the least deprived IMD quintile and 12·15 years (11·61-12·60) in the most deprived IMD quintile. The number of people living with multimorbidity will probably increase substantially in the next 30 years, a continuation of past observed increases partly driven by changing population size and age structure. Inequalities in the multimorbidity burden increase at each stage of disease accumulation, and are projected to widen, particularly among the working-age population. Substantial action is needed now to address population health and to prepare health-care and social-care systems for coming decades. University of Liverpool and National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Public Health Research.

Is joint hypermobility linked to self-reported non-recovery from COVID-19? Case–control evidence from the British COVID Symptom Study Biobank

ObjectivesThis study sought to explore whether generalised joint hypermobility (GJH, a common marker of variant connective tissue) was a risk factor for self-reported non-recovery from COVID-19 infection.DesignProspective observational study.SettingCOVID Symptom...

Relationship between ethnicity and multidisciplinary intervention for young people with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases

There is growing recognition of the impact of societal factors on health throughout a patient's lifespan. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the impact of racial disparity on health outcomes. We aimed to investigate the association between ethnicity and the multidisciplinary team (MDT) interventions for young people (YP) with complex care needs. This retrospective, single-centre, cross-sectional study was conducted within the department of adolescent and young adult rheumatology at University College Hospital, London, between August 2019 and August 2021. We extracted demographic, clinical and laboratory data. The index of multiple deprivation was extracted from the Office for National Statistics database. R software was used for analysis. We identified 310 YP referred to the MDT with a median age of 18 years (interquartile range 17-19). The female patient to male patient ratio was 2.4. Over a third of our cohort were from deprived areas. Comparison between Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) and White ethnic groups revealed significant differences in terms of referral for pain optimisation (p=0.006), social support (p<0.00001), and adherence and non-clinic attendance (p=0.0004). Our findings reveal the importance of quality data for early identification and support of vulnerable YP, particularly those from BAME communities.

A neural network approach for the mortality analysis of multiple populations: a case study on data of the Italian population

AbstractA Neural Network (NN) approach for the modelling of mortality rates in a multi-population framework is compared to three classical mortality models. The NN setup contains two instances of Recurrent NNs, including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) networks. The stochastic approaches comprise the Li and Lee model, the Common Age Effect model of Kleinow, and the model of Plat. All models are applied and compared in a large case study on decades of data of the Italian population as divided in counties. In this case study, a new index of multiple deprivation is introduced and used to classify all Italian counties based on socio-economic indicators, sourced from the local office of national statistics (ISTAT). The aforementioned models are then used to model and predict mortality rates of groups of different socio-economic characteristics, sex, and age.

Comparing indicators of disease severity among patients presenting to hospital for urinary tract infections before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients may have delayed seeking healthcare for urinary tract infections (UTIs). This could have resulted in more severe presentation to hospital and different antibiotic usage. We explored evidence for such changes through existing national indicators of prescribing, and routine clinical data collected in the electronic health record (EHR). We carried out a retrospective cohort study of patients presenting to two UK hospitals for UTIs, comparing two indicators of disease severity on admission before and during the pandemic: intravenous (IV) antibiotic use, and National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). We developed regression models to estimate the effect of the pandemic on each outcome, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity and index of multiple deprivation. During the pandemic, patients were less likely to present to hospital for UTI with NEWS2 of 0 or 1 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-0.85] compared with before, more likely to present with score 2 (aOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.18-1.94), whereas the likelihood of presenting with a NEWS2 of >2 remained the same (aOR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.87-1.29). We did not find evidence that this limited increase in disease severity resulted in changes to IV antibiotic use on admission (adjusted risk ratio: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.91-1.15). There may have been a small increase in disease severity at hospital presentation for UTI during the pandemic, which can be detected using routine data and not through national indicators of prescribing. Further research is required to validate these findings and understand whether routine data could support a more nuanced understanding of local antimicrobial prescribing practices.

Inequalities in Uptake and Use of Digital Applications for Home-Monitoring of Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration in an Elderly Visually Impaired Population: The MONARCH Study.

To describe inequalities in the Monitoring for Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration Reactivation at Home (MONARCH) diagnostic test accuracy study for: recruitment; participants' ability to self-test; and adherence to testing using digital applications during follow-up. Home-monitoring vision tests included two tests implemented as software applications (apps: MyVisionTrack and MultiBit) on an iPod Touch device. Patients were provided with all hardware required to participate (iPod and MIFI device) and trained to use the apps. Regression models estimated associations of age, sex, Index of Multiple Deprivation, strata of time since first diagnosis, and baseline visual acuity at study entry on outcomes of willingness to participate, ability to perform tests, and adherence to weekly testing. A minority of patients who were approached were willing-in-principle to participate. Increasing age was associated with being unwilling-in-principle to participate. Patients from the most deprived areas had a 47% decrease in odds of being willing compared to those from the middle quintile deprived areas (odds ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval = 0.32, 0.88). Increasing age and worse deprivation were not consistently associated either with ability to self-monitor with the index tests, or adherence to weekly testing. Associations of increasing age and worse deprivation index were associated with unwillingness-in-principle to participate despite the provision of hardware' highlighting the potential for inequality with interventions of the kind evaluated. The clear evidence of inequalities in participation should prompt future research on ways to encourage adoption of mobile health technologies by underserved populations.

Socioeconomic inequalities in risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 delta and omicron variants in the UK, 2020-22: analysis of the longitudinal COVID-19 Infection Survey

ObjectiveTo explore the risk of a positive test result for the delta or omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in different occupations and deprivation groups in the UK.DesignAnalysis of the...

Maternal ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation: influence on adverse pregnancy outcomes.

To evaluate the relative importance of ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation in determining the likelihood and the percentage of composite adverse pregnancy outcomes (CAPO) and composite of severe adverse pregnancy outcomes (CAPO-S) METHODS: This is a single centre retrospective cohort study conducted in a tertiary maternity unit. Data regarding the ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation were collected for 13,165 singleton pregnant women routinely screened in the first trimester for preeclampsia using the Fetal Medicine Foundation combined algorithm. The prevalence or risk of CAPO was 16.3% for White women, 29.3% for Black women and 29.3% for South Asian women. However, half of all CAPO cases (51.7%) occurred in White women. There is a strong interaction between ethnicity and socioeconomic deprivation (as measured with indices of multiple deprivation). Both influence the prevalence of CAPO and CAPO-S, with the contribution of ethnicity being strongest. Black and Asian ethnicity as well as socioeconomic deprivation influence the prevalence of placentally-mediated adverse pregnancy outcomes. Despite this, most adverse pregnancy outcomes occur in White women, who represent the majority of the population and are also affected by socioeconomic deprivation. For these reasons, inclusion of socioeconomic deprivation should be considered in early pregnancy risk assessment for placentally-mediated CAPO. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.