Increase In Non-performing Loans Research Articles

Does Interest Rate Impact Economic Growth? Empirical Insight from Nepal

Background: The relationship between interest rates, inflation, and non-performing loans on economic growth is debated in theoretical and empirical research. Hence, the study examines the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, and non-performing loans on the economic growth in Nepal. Methods: The paper incorporated quarterly data spanning nine years (2011-2019) and consisted of 972 observations. The study collected secondary data from the official websites of Nepal Rastra Bank and the Ministry of Finance, Nepal. The study used a panel cointegration test and random-effect models to examine the long-run relationship between predictor and response variables. Results: The impact of lending rate (LR) on economic growth is positive and statistically significant (β1 = 0.017, p < .01) in Nepal. Similarly, the coefficient of LNCPI (β2 = 0.687, p < .01) suggests that there is a positive relationship between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The regression coefficient of CPI (β3 = -.001, p > .05) suggests that an increase in non-performing loans (NPL) led to a decrease in GDP. However, this relationship was not statistically significant for the Nepalese Economy. Conclusion: The study concludes that the interest and inflation rates positively affect Nepal's economic growth. The findings indicate that policymakers, such as Nepal Rastra Bank, should maintain interest rates at an appropriate level. Novelty: This study is novel because it thoroughly analyzes numerous observations over long periods to investigate the impacts of loan rates, inflation rates, and non-performing loans on economic growth in Nepal, improving its generalizability.

Factors influencing demand for, and supply of, agricultural credit: A study from Bangladesh

The provision of a wide range of financing choices enhances farmers' ability to respond to changing circumstances in their agricultural activities and maintain optimal levels of production. However, several household- and farm-level determinants impact the availability of, and demand for, agricultural credit in rural households. Therefore, the current study explores the determinants of demand for, and supply of, agricultural credit. To do so, data at the farm level were gathered using interviews with a randomly selected sample of 360 respondents in the Mymensingh region of Bangladesh. Additionally, 30 years' worth of secondary data were obtained from various sources to investigate the determinants of agricultural credit supply. Data were analyzed using binary logistics and multiple linear regression. Findings reveal that farmers’ demand for agricultural credit is positively influenced by farming experience and farm size. Factors that significanly discourage farmers from taking credit include (a) an increase in income-generating family members, (b) perceived high interest rates of credit, and (c) negative perceptions regarding the application procedure. Factors that increase agricultural credit supply are (a) an increase in credit supply targets and (b) increased severity of natural disasters. In addition, an increase in non-performing loans does not hinder agricultural credit supply as the Bangladeshi government has placed special emphasis on protecting farmers from crop failures and other adverse situations in order to achieve food self-sufficiency in the country.

The bank lending behaviour: Does non-performing loans matter? Evidence from the top-ten banks in the Arab world

This essay examines the third increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Arab World, which the COVID-19 epidemic may have contributed to. This increase follows two previous waves that occurred in 1990 and after 2008. The primary aim is to analyze bank lending behavior, particularly examining the influence of firm-specific determinants on banks' lending activities and the impact of NPLs on this behavior. Utilizing secondary data from 2016 to 2020, this research focuses on the top ten national banks in the Arab region. The methodology incorporates panel data derived from audited financial statements and employs OLS regression (Pooled) for analysis. The findings reveal a significant negative impact of NPLs and capital adequacy ratios on bank lending behavior, while bank size and deposit growth positively influence lending activities. Additionally, the study notes an insignificant relationship between profitability, equity as a percentage of total assets, and lending behavior. These results provide practical insights for banking sector decision-makers, emphasizing the management of NPLs through maintaining adequate capital, enhancing deposits, and increasing bank assets. From a social perspective, the study suggests that banks should prioritize lending to investors likely to fulfil their obligations, potentially limiting credit availability for smaller entities and individuals without guarantees. This approach aims to mitigate the risks associated with NPLs. This work's originality lies in its concentration on a condensed sample that accounts for more than 70% of the banking resources in the Arab region, making it a significant contribution to applied research in this area that stands out for its reliance on pre-existing data.

ASSESSMENT OF THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE BANK'S CAPITALIZATION LEVEL AND THE COUNTRY'S MACROECONOMIC STABILITY

A well-capitalized banking system is crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability, preventing financial crises, and bolstering the economy's resilience to shocks. Governments often strive to ensure adequate bank capitalization to foster stable economic growth. This article aims to assess the relationship between bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability in 34 European countries from 2010 to 2021, based on World Bank statistics.The study utilizes the principal components method to identify relevant indicators of bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability, canonical analysis and regression analyses to detail the interconnections between these blocks. The canonical analysis confirms a link between bank capitalization and macroeconomic stability indicators with a coefficient of determination of 0.617 signifying that 61.8% of the variance in macroeconomic stability is explained by fluctuations in bank capitalization.The article presents one fixed-effect and two random-effect regression models detailing the directions and strength of influence of independent variables (NPL, ROA, ROE - indicators of the bank capitalization level) on dependent variables (INFLATION, UNEMPL, GINI - indicators of macroeconomic stability). The Wald criteria and a p-value less than 0.05 indicated that the models with random effects (UNEMPL, GINI) were statistically significant.The results reveal that a 1% increase in non-performing loans correlates with a 0.25% rise in the unemployment rate, and a 1% increase in return on assets leads to a 0.08% increase in the unemployment rate. Additionally, a 1% increase in non-performing loans raises the Gini index by 0.05%, while a 1% increase in return on equity decreases the Gini index by 0.03%. Notably, the impact of return on assets on the unemployment rate and the Gini coefficient is not statistically significant (p-value greater than 0.05).These results can inform the forecasting of national indicators, the development of tools to ensure sufficient bank capitalization, and the formulation of effective macroeconomic policies, taking into account fluctuations in banks' capitalization levels as key financial intermediaries.

An estimation of the Italian banking sector profit rate in a crisis period

In this paper an attempt is made to calculate the profit rate of the banking sector in the period following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, in order to compare it with that of other real productive sectors. Various techniques are used, highlighting the differences between the results of national accounts data—on which the GDP calculation is based—and those of the central bank. This paper studies the problem of this difference on Italian data and offers a possible explanation, which confirms some analysis (Banque de France on French data) related to an earlier period. The second step in the analysis is directed at comparing bank profit rate and the productive profit rate. The result is that the bank profit rate has been surprisingly low in recent years, due to a decrease in net interest income, an increase in capital and an increase in non-performing loans. However, since 2021, bank profitability has improved greatly, thanks in part to institutional interventions.

The financialization of local government debt in China and its risk transmission to commercial banks

China's local government debt has risen sharply due to fiscal stimulus and decentralized financing. This debt expansion increases systemic risk as default risk is transmitted to banks, the primary holders of local debt. Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model incorporating local governments and banks, we show that local debt expansion increases banks' nonperforming loans and crowds out private credit, increasing bank risk-taking. We empirically examine 2010–2019 data on 350 Chinese banks and find that the level of local debt positively impacts bank risk-taking, especially low-capital, nonstate, and unlisted banks. The mechanisms operate through an increase in nonperforming loans due to default risk and a reduced regional repayment capacity due to crowded-out private credit. Our study reveals the impact of local debt on bank risk and financial stability in China. Policy implications include strengthening bank regulation and pursuing diversified government financing.

Does the Staff Bonus Fund Decrease the Net Profit? Empirical Insights from Nepalese Commercial Banks

This study investigates the impact of staff bonus funds, return on assets (ROA), and non-performing loans (NPLs) on Nepalese commercial banks' net profit. It also compares the individual effects of independent variables on the net profit of commercial banks. The unbalanced panel data of 11 commercial banks were gathered from various central bank reports and economic surveys of Nepal. It employs a descriptive and exploratory research design. To investigate the relationship between dependent and independent variables, statistical and econometric tools such as summary statistics, association analysis, Johnsen- Fisher and Kao co-integration test, Hausman, Breusch-Pagan, Chow test, and standardized panel fully modified ordinary least square (PFMOLS) are used. Non-performing loans hurt the calculation of net profit. The net profit of Nepal's commercial banks drops by 0.323 units for every one percent increase in non-performing loans. Similarly, a 0.234 unit increase in Nepalese commercial banks' net profit is linked to every unit increase in return on assets. The staff bonus fund is more responsible for increasing commercial banks' net profit than return on assets. This study assists policymakers in determining that employee bonuses are not only an expense but also a profit-generating tool for motivating and attracting skilled individuals. It contributes to developing appropriate strategies to reduce non-performing loans and boost the ROA of Nepalese commercial banks.

Drivers of moral hazard in banks

AbstractThe objective of this research is to identify factors that determine the moral hazard in banks by using discrete choice models (probit and logit regression). A specially constructed indicator was used to quantitatively assess moral hazard as the average difference between the better rating of a client in a bank and the most conservative rating of the same client in the banking sector. This is an example where moral hazard manifests itself as the tendency of management in banks to underestimate credit risk. The results showed that state-owned banks and foreign privately-owned banks with evident problems at the level of their headquarters had higher values of this quantitative indicator of moral hazard. Also, banks whose financial result and capital are highly sensitive to a small increase in non-performing loans, as well as banks that at any time in the observed period had a problem with meeting regulatory capital requirements, showed a greater propensity to moral hazard, as measured by this indicator. In the above cases, in the absence of quality corporate governance, management in banks tends to show performance better than it actually is. The obtained results for Serbia in comparison with the previous research give the possibility to quantitatively confirm additional specific factors important for explaining moral hazard (composite variable of the type of ownership and capital restrictions, variables that perform only the transmission of certain forms of management behaviour, size, capital and profit sensitivity, credit risk level, etc.), in addition to the common factors of moral hazard, such as the type of ownership in the bank, capital restrictions, etc.

Do operational risks and credit risks make banks more aggressive to avoid taxes?

This study aims to analyze the relationship between credit risk and operational risk on tax avoidance aggressiveness in banking companies in Indonesia for the period 2004-2021. The total observations in the study amounted to 271 samples. The testing method in this study uses multiple regression analysis with panel data. In general, the results show that Non-Performing Loans (NPL) is positively related to to Effective Tax Rates (ETR); in this case, an increase in NPL does not make companies more aggressive in tax avoidance. While Business Operating Profitability (BOPO) is negatively related ETR, in this case, an increase in BOPO makes the company more aggressive in tax avoidance. The results show significant differences in the effect of NPL and BOPO on ETR as a proxy for tax avoidance aggressiveness between the models analyzed. Although NPL shows a significant positive relationship with ETR in one of the first models, the relationship is not significant in the other models. Meanwhile, BOPO has an insignificant negative relationship with ETR in the first model but a negative significant relationship in the second model.

The Influence of Operational Costs on Operating Income and Interest Rates on Non-PerformingiLoans in Banking Companies listed on thei Indonesian Stock Exchangei

This study aims to analyze the effect of operational costs on operational income and interest rates on non-performingiloans in banking companies on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. iThe population in this study are banking companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for 2018 - 2022 with a totaliof 150 companies and a total sample of 30 companies. iThe sampling technique was purposive sampling. iThe data collection technique documentation is used from financial reports published on the IDX's official website, namely www.idx.co.id. iThe analysis used is multiple linear regression analysis with panel data. The results of this research show that operational costs on operational income have a significant positive effect on non-performing loans, This means that operational costs on operational income have not been able to minimize the level of non-performing loans, thus causing an increase in non-performing loans. while interest rates do not affect non-performing loans, which means that the interest rate position does not influence non-performing loans.

Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in a Small Island Economy of Fiji: Accounting for COVID-19, Bank-Type, and Globalisation

An increase in non-performing loans and bad debts in the banking sector can make banks vulnerable to a loss of confidence among customers and other banks and a banking collapse. The recent pandemic (COVID-19) and the evolving globalisation can affect bank operations, although the effects may depend on the type of banks and other bank-specific factors. In this paper, we revisit the topic on the determinants of non-performing loans of banks in a small island economy of Fiji over the period 2000 to 2022. We apply a fixed-effect method and consider seven banks (five commercial banks and two non-bank financial institutions). In our estimations, we examine the effect of bank-specific factors and control for the social and economic globalisation, the GFC, the COVID-19 pandemic, and bank-type effects, as well as the effect of the interaction between the bank type and the pandemic, as key contributions of the study. Overall, our results are consistent in terms of the effects noted from the bank-specific factors. From the extended model estimations, we note that COVID-19 had a more adverse effect on loan losses than the GFC, and the interaction between the bank type and COVID-19 indicates that non-banks were highly vulnerable to loan losses, whereas commercial banks exhibited greater preparedness. Economic globalisation reduces bank losses, whereas social globalisation exacerbates NPLs.

Analisis Penerapan Manajemen Risiko Kredit pada Perusahaan Start-Up Fintech PT A

Fintech PT A is one of the pioneers in Indonesia that serves business people with lenders on a digital platform. One of the problems faced by fintech PT A is the increase in non-performing loans. This research is a case study at a fintech startup to analyze the application of credit risk management and provide recommendations for improving credit risk management to improve company performance. The methodology used in this research is descriptive qualitative analysis by collecting data from interviews and documentation studies. Interviews were conducted with the Director of Credit and Collection and Director of Risk who have a crucial role in risk management in the company. The results of the study show that the application of risk management to PT A is in accordance with the four stages of the Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority regulation number 04/POJK.05/2021 namely credit risk identification, credit risk measurement, credit risk control, and credit risk monitoring. However, the application of credit risk management by PT A based on data analysis obtained through interviews and documentation studies shows that the results have not operate optimally. Because at the stages of monitoring credit risk and controlling credit risk there are still several aspects that have not been fulfilled based on the Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority regulation number 04/POJK.05/2021. So the recommendation that can be given is that the company can create a more structured and sustainable risk management system with all related divisions so that it can accommodate all aspects of risk up to the risk monitoring and control process.

Evaluasi Kinerja Perbankan Indonesia Pasca Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Metode Hellwig

The increase in non-performing loans during the Covid-19 pandemic forced the government to establish a credit restructuring policy for banks in Indonesia. Through this policy, it is expected that banks in Indonesia will be able to reduce the credit risk that arises and improve their financial performance. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of credit restructuring policies on the financial performance of Indonesian banks by measuring the variability of performance scores between banks with a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach using the Hellwig method and a comparison test between periods using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. This research sample consists of 43 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2020-2022. Evaluation using the Hellwig method obtained the score and performance ranking of each bank which was grouped into 5 categories, from very low to very high. in 2022, BACA and BEKS have very low scores and rankings. While BBSI and ARTO have very high scores and rankings. The comparative test results prove that the financial performance of Indonesian banks in 2022 is higher than in 2020 and 2021. The restructuring policy is proven to be able to improve banks performance in Indonesia and the effectiveness of the policy has reached its highest achievement in 3rd year since it was implemented.

How do funding diversity and non-performing loans affect bank performance in different economic cycles?

This paper aims to study the impacts of bank funding diversity, non-performing loans (NPLs), and business cycles on bank performance. We employ Fixed Effect Models and the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments to examine a sample of 37 Vietnamese banks from 2005 to 2020. Our findings report that a one percentage point increase in the funding diversity index empowers ROA by 0.031 percentage points. Our results indicate that one positive standard deviation of real GDP from the trend calculated by the Hodrick-Prescott filter increases the ROA by 0.004 percentage points. However, a percentage point increase in non-performing loans reduces ROA by 0.075 percentage points. Our findings are also robust in various proxies of bank performance, economic cycles, and FED interest rate cycles. The findings help determine the optimal funding strategy for policymakers and bank managers. These findings suggest that bank managers develop long-term credit policies to control NPLs, improving sustainable performance. Regulators closely monitor macroeconomic factors to maintain banking stability in different economic stages. Our findings align with the diversification theory, trade-off theory, and prior literature.

The effects of non-performing loans on bank stability and economic performance in Zimbabwe

This study explores the impact of non-performing loans (NPLs) on the Zimbabwean banking industry’s stability and economic performance during the dollarization era. The panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model was applied using annual data from 2009 to 2017. The findings indicated that short-run NPL shocks negatively impact the risk-adjusted return, while the impact on risk-adjusted capitalization is positive but dies off in the long run. The findings from the paper further show that NPLs have a strong negative and significant effect on loan growth and economic performance in the short run but remain muted in the long run. The study results also show a bi-directional causality between banking industry stability and NPLs. In summary, NPLs affect banking industry stability, loan growth and economic performance in Zimbabwe. A possible implication is the formulation of a sound regulatory framework that curbs the increase in NPLs, promotes stability within the banking industry, and improves economic performance. The practical implication is that banks must get it right the first time regarding bank lending policies. Thus, the study recommends that Zimbabwean banks proactively manage their exposure to non-performing loans by implementing rigorous credit risk assessment processes.

COVID-19 and financial institution stability: stress testing the Eastern Caribbean currency union

PurposeThis paper aims to simulate the potential impact of increasing non-performing loans (NPLs) on capital adequacy, interest income and firm value of banks and credit unions in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using stress tests.Design/methodology/approachA financial stress testing model was deployed at the levels of individual financial intermediary (FI), sectoral loan portfolio composition, individual member country, and the ECCU collectively, to investigate the impact of NPL shocks on FI stability.FindingsThe authors find that shocks impact the capital adequacy of banks less than that of credit unions, but that firm value of banks is more susceptible to increases in NPLs. Interest income responses to NPL shocks were linked to credit exposure from the tourism sector, which also reduced capital adequacy more than other economic sectors. Findings show that while the COVID-19 pandemic occasioned some increase in NPLs, the magnitude of impact was significantly mitigated by pro-stability policies including loan repayment moratoria and restructuring, guidance on the distribution of profits and deleveraging by financial institutions leading up to 2020.Originality/valueThe paper is among the first to use stress testing on the Caribbean in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Past studies which have used stress test models in the region have not explicitly investigated the impact of credit shocks on risk-weighted assets or interest income as done herein, nor do they include credit unions in the modeling. The results offer novel evaluations as well as implications for FIs in other developing economies, especially those that share a comparable financial and economic architecture.

Pengaruh Non-Performing Loans, Keputusan Investasi, dan Umur Perusahaan terhadap Tobin’s Q pada Perusahaan Sub-Sektor Perbankan Konvensional

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the economy in Indonesia to decline and credit risk to banks to increase. Risks that have increased in line with the increasing trend of the gross Non-Performing Loans ratio since 2020 compared to previous years, the Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio has a higher trend, thus encouraging the relative increase in Non-Performing Loans (NPL) in several sectors, including the banking sector. This study tests the effect of Non-Performing Loans (NPL), investment decisions, and company age on Tobin's Q on conventional banking sub-sector companies registered with the OJK during the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2021 period). The study was conducted with multiple linear regression analysis. The population was all conventional banking companies registered with the OJK, while the research sample was 58, with the retrieval technique using random sampling. The result of this study is that investment decisions have a positive and significant influence on Tobin's Q. In contrast, Non-Performing Loans (NPL) and company age do not influence Tobin's Q.

Analysis of the loan suspension fiasco from an economic perspective

The importance of the real estate sector to China cannot be overstated, but the recent loan suspensions have had a definite impact on the Chinese property market, with several banks and brokerages showing weakness and an increase in non-performing loans in the face of the liquidity crisis in the real estate market. Investigating the causes of the loan suspension is of great importance to the study of the stability of the real estate market. This paper will use the loan suspension as an entry point to give an analysis of the importance of the real estate sector and point out the important role of real estate in China's economic growth. It will then analyze the relationship between supply and demand in China's commodity housing market from a micro perspective and finally speculate on the causes of the loan suspension by combining micro and macroeconomics.

Analisa Korelasi Motivasi Koperasi, Manfaat Koperasi dan Kualitas Pelayanan terhadap Partisipasi Anggota

The existence of cooperatives is expected to be able to realize a populist economy that grows rapidly and is just and in accordance with the goals of sustainable development (SDGs). The participation of members of the Kosayu Credit Cooperative is still considered insufficient. This can be seen from the decrease in the number of members' savings and an increase in Non-Performing Loans (NPL) or members' bad loans. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of cooperative members' motivation, benefits for members, and cooperative service quality both partially and simultaneously on the participation of Kosayu Kopdit members. The population in this study were all members of the Kosayu Kopdit. From the partial hypothesis testing, it is known that the cooperative motivation variable has a positive effect of 16.4%, the member benefits variable has an effect of 36.2%, and the service quality variable has an effect of 21.7% on the participation of Kosayu Kopdit members. While simultaneously, the variables of motivation to cooperate, the variables of benefits for members, and the variables of service quality jointly affect member participation by 40.4% and the remaining 59.6% is influenced by other factors.

The effect of the disposal of non-performing loans on interbank liquidity risk in China: A cash flow network-based analysis

The scale of non-performing loans (NPLs) directly affects the credit risk of commercial banks, and a large range of loan defaults will also lead to the liquidity crisis. Furthermore, liquidity risk will transmit to other banks through the interbank network. A reasonable disposal mode of NPLs is not only of great significance to commercial banks themselves, but is also related to the liquidity risk of the whole banking system. This paper fully considers the characteristics of China's banking system and constructs a dynamic bank-centered multi-agent model (DBMM) to explore how the disposal of non-performing loans (NPLs) affects interbank liquidity risk based on the interbank cash flow network. The results indicate that the increase in the number of small and medium-sized commercial banks improve the whole banking system stability, however, the increase in NPLs from low-income debtors increases the liquidity risk. The disposal of NPLs plays an important role in maintaining the stability of interbank networks, and the stock-plus-loan mode can more effectively alleviate liquidity risk in China than the entrusted settlement mode. Liquidation repayment ratio of commercial banks has the most significant effect on the interbank network in China, and adjusting this proportion is an effective method to prevent liquidity risk. Moreover, compared with small commercial banks, large commercial banks have a stronger ability to resist liquidity risk, as they are established with capital injection by the government in China.