High Economic Policy Uncertainty Research Articles

The Influence of Managerial Ability on Corporate Financialization

This study investigates the influence of managerial ability on corporate financialization level. We find that stronger managerial ability leads to more financial asset holdings owing to fewer financing constraints realized through highly capable managers’ higher revenue-generating capacity and lower risks in financial asset investments resulting from their higher ability to recognize quality financial products. We further explore the influence of managerial ability on corporate financialization level in the presence of high-quality information disclosure, managers’ financial institution work experience, high economic policy uncertainty, and employee stock ownership. We find that high-quality information disclosure and managers’ financial institution work experience strengthen the positive correlation between corporate financialization level and managerial ability. However, high economic policy uncertainty and employee stock ownership weaken the positive correlation between corporate financialization level and managerial ability. Our findings suggest that managers who are more capable of generating revenue during operating activities tend to hold more financial assets, whereas adding constraints to corporate financing activities may hinder managers’ ability to address financial asset investment risks, thus reducing corporate financialization level.

Moderating role of political stability and economic policy uncertainty between country governance practice and stock market performance. A comparative analysis of Pakistan and Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

The objective of the study is to explore the relationship between country governance practices along with political stability and Economic policy uncertainty, and stock market performance of two different economies, Pakistan and Kurdistan region of Iraq. To meet our objectives, we used the 25 years past data from 1996 to 2021. Data is collected from the DataStream database. The regression analysis is used as the method of estimation for linear and moderation effect. Our results show that regulatory quality, rules of law and political stability has significant positive relationship with stock market performance of Pakistan, but all the governance indicators have significant positive relationship with stock market performance of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Moreover, political stability has significant moderating impact between the governance practices and the performance of the stock markets of both economies indicating that the governance practices perform well with the political stability that leads to rise in the stock market indices of selected countries. Economic policy uncertainty has significant negative moderation impact due to creating the risk in both economies that decrease the performance of the stock markets of the selected economies. Finally, our study advocated some implications for the investors to increase their confidence on the stock of high political stability and low economic policy uncertainty economies. Government can take significant measures to control the uncertainty of the policy and portfolio managers can adjust their risk on the ground of the political stability and efficient governance practices countries.

Risk Management in the Area of Bitcoin Market Development: Example from the USA

This paper explores the relationship between Bitcoin returns, the consumer price index, and economic policy uncertainty. Employing the QARDL method, this study examines both short- and long-term dynamics between macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin returns. Our analysis of monthly time series data from January 2011 to November 2023 reveals that volatile US economic policy indicators, such as high economic policy uncertainty, volatile inflation, and rising interest rates, have recently exerted a negative impact on Bitcoin returns. This study shows that these results are true not only for traditional money but also for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, despite their cardinal features. Its decentralized nature, indicating that it has no physical representation, is not tied to any authority or national economy and relies on a complex algorithm to track transactions. Further, it yields volatile returns that depend on macroeconomic indicators.

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Carbon Emissions

The article aims to examine the potential effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the mean and variance of carbon (CO2) emissions by employing a novel nonparametric causality-in-quantiles and quantile-on-quantile on the dataset comprising of 17 economies to test our hypothesis. The results of causality-in-quantiles find that EPU offers a significant yet mixed ability to impact the carbon emissions of most economies. These mixed patterns of impact pertain not only to mean and variance but also across regions. The results of quantile-on-quantile reveal that high EPU leads to an augmented level of carbon emissions. This causality may indicate that macroeconomic and institutional factors influence the carbon emission for all analyzed countries. These findings are particularly useful for practitioners, policymakers, academic researchers, and traders in the carbon market as they could promote the realization of carbon reductions targets by maintaining stable economic policies that have tangible ramifications for carbon emissions behavior.

Managing bank liquidity hoarding during uncertain times: The role of board gender diversity

AbstractThis paper examines the effect of executive board gender diversity on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and bank liquidity hoarding (LH). We focus on the Russian banking sector, which, relative to most of the world, has a high share of women on bank executive boards. Using the news‐based EPU index developed by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) and LH measures proposed by Berger, Guedhami, Kim, and Li (2022), we exploit a unique dataset from the Russian banking sector. While higher economic policy uncertainty tends to increase liquidity hoarding, we find that this effect diminishes as the gender diversity of the board increases. We attribute this finding to the moderating influence of gender diversity on stability and overreaction in decision‐making. Additionally, we find that the channel through which board gender diversity affects the impact of economic policy uncertainty on liquidity hoarding takes place via the hoarding of liquid assets. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative measures for economic policy uncertainty and gender diversity and hold after addressing endogeneity concerns. As women are still significantly under‐represented on bank boards in most countries, these results argue for policies to promote gender diversity on bank boards as a means of limiting the detrimental effects of economic policy uncertainty.

Economic policy uncertainty and managerial short-termism

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has been on the rise worldwide in recent decades and affects macroeconomic and firm performance severely. This exacerbates short-termism among managers, who are more likely to pursue immediate benefits during times of uncertainty. It is therefore important for policymakers, managers, and investors to understand the effects of EPU. This study examines the relationship between EPU and managerial short-termism using data from 2002 to 2020. Using managers' abnormal discretionary spending cuts as a proxy for managerial short-termism, we find that these spending cuts increase during periods of high EPU and are more pronounced in EPU-sensitive firms. In addition, we show that managers are more likely to meet or slightly beat their earnings targets when EPU is high, suggesting that EPU causes managers' myopic behavior. This study shows how managers react to EPU. Because managerial short-termism undermines companies' long-term value, investors and regulators must pay close attention to the recent increase in EPU globally.

Economic policy uncertainty: Global energy security with diversification

Global energy security is a growing worldwide concern in the presence of high economic policy uncertainty (EPU) that can be addressed by advancing sustainable energy diversification (ED) practices. Energy security can be estimated by combining ED and EPU indices; hence, this study uses a dataset covering three continents and 26 countries from 1995 to 2023 to measure energy security employing this approach. The study employs quantile regression and panel data analysis, finding a positive relationship between EPU and ED. The results reveal that when EPU increases, the spectrum of energy sources declines, negatively impacting energy security. Other factors of globalization, Gross Domestic Product, gross capital formation, and the labor force also have an impact on the spectrum of energy sources. To obtain a sustainable level of ED, policymakers should increase investment in gross capital formation because economic growth and openness via pro-global policies have less impact on ED. This study also demonstrates that labor capital shifts have a significant effect on ED. The quantitative results reveal the importance of clear and precise economic policies for increasing investment in carbon-free energy security.

Economic policy uncertainty, ownership structure, and R&D investment: Evidence from Japan

AbstractUsing listed Japanese firms, we examine changes in R&D investment decisions during periods of high economic policy uncertainty and politics uncertainty (EPU). We find that under high EPU, firms are more persistent in their previous R&D investment and reduce their responsiveness to sales growth, while the mechanism of EPU occurs mainly through fiscal policy. We also identify heterogeneities in ownership structure and find that high director ownership encourages R&D in firms with greater growth opportunities despite higher EPU. Moreover, Japanese directors suffer from the “quiet life problem,” which further reduces their incentive to change R&D investment during periods of EPU.

Environmental, social, and governance performance and corporate innovation novelty

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, along with the novelty of innovation, are significant factors in promoting sustainable development for corporations. This study employs the Heckman two-stage model to examine the impact of ESG performance on innovation novelty using a dataset comprising A-share listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2011 to 2020. The results indicate that enhanced ESG performance significantly fosters innovation by expanding innovation resources and mitigating agency problems. Further analysis reveals that this relationship is more pronounced under high economic policy uncertainty, a challenging information environment, elevated financing constraints, and in the context of digital transformation. This study not only expands the research on the economic implications of ESG performance for enterprise innovation behavior but also places a distinct emphasis on innovation quality rather than quantity. Additionally, this study enriches the existing literature on the factors influencing innovation novelty and extends research into the link between environmental protection and firm innovation, particularly from the perspective of stakeholder theory. Furthermore, this study holds practical significance for governments aiming to enhance ESG evaluation systems and establish guiding policies that encourage novel innovations, ultimately contributing to sustainable and high-quality development. Simultaneously, this study provides guidance to enterprises by encouraging them to embrace green development, improve social responsibility, and elevate their governance standards to promote innovation quality.

Corporate culture and ESG performance: Empirical evidence from China

With the rising awareness of green and sustainable development, corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance has become an essential topic in academia. Existing studies have focused on the driving role of formal institutions on corporate ESG performance while ignoring the motivational role of informal institutions such as culture. Based on the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2021, this study adopts textual analysis to quantify corporate culture and discusses the impact of corporate culture on ESG performance and its internal mechanism. We find that corporate culture significantly enhances ESG performance. Mechanism test indicates that corporate culture can promote green innovation and improve information transparency through resource and information effect, enhancing ESG performance. We further demonstrate differences in the impact of corporate culture dimensions on ESG performance, with innovation culture and quality culture being the most prominent. In addition, there is heterogeneity in the impact of corporate culture on ESG performance. In the context of non-state-owned property rights, low market attention, and high economic policy uncertainty, the impact of corporate culture on ESG performance is more significant. This paper enriches the related research on ESG performance drivers from the informal system perspective and provides decision-making references for enterprises to promote ESG practices and achieve sustainable development.

Wall street watches Washington: Asset pricing implications of policy uncertainty

We examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on sell-side analysts’ forecasts, the allocation of attention, and the stock market reaction to earnings news. We find that periods of high EPU are associated with higher analyst disagreement and a decrease in forecast accuracy. Specifically, we show that analysts issue on average more pessimistic forecasts when EPU is high. Second, we show that higher levels of EPU are associated with higher attention to the overall stock market and lower firm-level attention, in line with category learning behavior. Forecast errors also have a larger firm-specific component during periods of high EPU. Finally, we show that the trading volume and price responses to earnings announcements hardly depend on EPU. Hence, investors tend to follow analyst forecasts, thereby failing to incorporate a predictable bias.

Stabilizing global foreign exchange markets in the time of COVID-19: The role of vaccinations

By restoring economic openness, mitigating economic policy uncertainty, and regaining macroeconomic stability, the mass deployment of COVID-19 vaccinations should stabilize foreign exchange (FX) markets. This paper empirically examines the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations on the realized volatility of exchange rates in 30 countries/regions from January 1, 2020, to September 29, 2021. Using the heterogeneous autoregressive model with measurement errors, we find that the COVID-19 vaccine rollout stabilizes global FX markets; this result holds through a series of robustness checks. The stabilizing effect is asymmetric across the quantile levels of FX volatility distribution. Furthermore, the stabilizing effect is more pronounced in emerging markets, countries with high economic policy uncertainty, and nations with greater vaccine confidence.

The dampening effect of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the linkage between economic complexity and environmental degradation in the G-20

The question remains whether high geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty will have a dampening or enhancing effect on pollution factors. In this regard, the study empirically investigates the effects of economic complexity, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental pollution for G-20 countries from 1997 to 2018. The long-term coefficient estimates, derived from the FMOLS estimator, support the inverted U-shaped EKC linkages between economic complexity and ecological footprint, carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, over the long term, geopolitical risks, renewable energy use, and the interaction between economic complexity and policy uncertainty have a positive impact on environmental quality in the G-20 economies. Conversely, economic growth and the interaction between economic complexity and geopolitical risk are negatively associated with environmental quality.Additionally, economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on ecological footprint carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, causality results revealed that explanatory variables are the cause of environmental pollution indicators. Hence, in order to advance environmental quality in these nations, precautions must be taken to mitigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty and boost the accessibility of renewable energy sources. Additionally, while not advised as a policy measure, the feasible economic fallout of geopolitical risk should also be considered.

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on manager sentiment: evidence from Chinese non-financial listed firms

ABSTRACT In this study, we investigate the link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and manager sentiment. Analysing a comprehensive dataset of Chinese non-financial listed firms spanning from 2007 to 2021, the findings indicate a negative relationship between EPU and manager sentiment expressed in annual reports. Additionally, we observed a significant reduction in manager sentiment bias in the presence of high EPU. The impact of EPU on manager sentiment is moderated by firms benefiting from government industrial policy and those exhibiting stronger risk-taking capability, as the negative effect is less pronounced in these cases. Our channel analysis reveals that EPU diminishes manager sentiment by impairing operating performance and capital market performance.

Economic policy uncertainty and SMEs’ investment efficiency in France: does competitive pressure matter?

Purpose This paper aims to investigate empirically the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on small-to-medium enterprises’ (SMEs) investment efficiency and whether product market competition influences this association. Design/methodology/approach The study was conducted on French SMEs listed on the “CAC Mid & Small” Index over 2008–2021. This paper proposes a quantitative approach to test the relationship between the EPU and SME investment efficiency. Findings These findings show that EPU significantly alleviates SMEs’ investment inefficiency, reflected in the reduction of overinvestment and underinvestment. As EPU increases, firms with more exposure to such uncertainty invest more efficiently, and their overinvestment tendency becomes lower, while reducing the risk of underinvestment. These results are still significant after a series of robustness checks. Further analysis shows that EPU mitigates investment inefficiency to a greater extent for firms operating in highly competitive industries, and better information environments. Research limitations/implications This study was limited to the French EPU index and could be extended to a European or even international scale. Moreover, using alternative uncertainty indexes across various European countries can be more advantageous in further studies. Although results suggest that EPU affects investment efficiency, future studies could further explore the mechanisms through which EPU affects SMEs’ investment efficiency and, in particular, across different industries. Understanding these variations due to the specific industry-EPU sensitivity can provide valuable insights. Finally, it would be interesting to examine the risk management strategies adopted by SMEs in the face of EPU, combined with other growing risks, such as climate risk. Practical implications In the face of high EPU, SME managers must improve risk management, adopt appropriate investment strategies, consider using predictive analytics or economic forecasting tools and embrace technology and innovation that enhance agility and responsiveness to policy uncertainty. Besides, political decision-makers should adapt their regulatory policies (tax, labor, housing, etc.) to preserve the efficiency of SME investment. Originality/value Although the debates on how policy uncertainty affects the investment and financing of large businesses have received a great concern of academia, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that focuses on the effect of EPU on investment distortions for SMEs.

Relationship between economic policy uncertainty and domestic credits: evidence from the long-span time series for the UK and the USA

ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on domestic credit in the United Kingdom and the United States from 1900 to 2020. The Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model results show that the EPU significantly decreases domestic credit both in the United Kingdom and the United States. Further results from the Volatility Spillover model indicate robust evidence of the negative impact of the EPU on domestic credit demand. The high spillover effect comes from the high EPU, which is associated with low domestic credit, and the low EPU is associated with increased domestic credit. The results are robust in different model procedures. The results indicate that consumers decrease durable consumption, and firms follow a wait-and-see strategy during times of higher EPU.

The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Environmental Uncertainty in Improving Performance: Mediated by Innovation and Banking Risk

Objective: This research aims to examine the design model for innovation, risk identification of economic uncertainty and environmental uncertainty to improve banking performance in Indonesia. This research supports the theme of the G20 congress, how the world creates strategies to strengthen the economy amidst global uncertainty, then this study will examine how economic uncertainty can create significant risks for business.   Methodology: The method used in this research is using data on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. There are 33 companies as samples for the 2021-2022 period, the test tool used is Stata.   Result and Conlusion: The results of this research are that high economic policy uncertainty can hamper economic growth, reduce investment, or cause volatility in financial markets. Conversely, when the level of economic policy uncertainty is low, the confidence of economic actors can increase, and this can create a more stable environment and encourage economic activity. Innovation has an effect on increasing company performance with a coefficient of 0.0024 and a significance level of 0.30 < 0.05, meaning that innovation can mediate between economic and environmental uncertainty on performance, This aims to produce positive change, increase competitiveness and create added value. Risk produces a coefficient level that influences performance (0.04) but does not directly influence performance (0.77>0.05), meaning that risk cannot mediate between economic and environmental uncertainty on performance, this is because good risk can help manage risk and reduce NPL level.   Novelty: The novelty in this research lies in the role of economic uncertainty and environmental uncertainty in improving banking performance, as well as looking at banking innovation and risk. This research can provide valuable insight for the banking industry in facing complex economic and environmental challenges, therefore the novelty presented in this study is that banking companies can seek innovation in adjusting product and service portfolios and implementation processes, as well as managing risks by paying attention to the consequences of changing policies.

Research of the non-linear dynamic relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and crude oil prices

This paper examines the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU, Global economic policy uncertainty refers to the fact that market actors cannot accurately predict whether the government will change the current economic policy, if so, when the government will make changes, and what the content of the current policy changes will be. These are difficult for economic actors to accurately predict.) and crude oil prices from a global perspective within a non-linear analytical framework. Firstly, the non-linear dynamic trends between GEPU and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices are examined using the VAR-filtered BDS test, followed by the test of the non-linear Granger causality, which shows significant non-linear causal relationship between GEPU and WTI oil prices. Further, this paper use threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR) and threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) to analysis the long-term and short-term non-linear dynamic adjustment processes between GEPU and WTI oil prices, the result shows that there is an optimal threshold between GEPU and WTI. In the low global economic policy uncertainty regime, the relationship between GEPU and WTI is mutually beneficial, while in the high global economic policy uncertainty regime, the relationship between GEPU and WTI is mutually inhibited. Meanwhile, the TVECM results show that in the first regime, GEPU adjusts towards equilibrium at a faster rate, while in the second regime, WTI adjusts towards equilibrium at a faster rate.

Bank liquidity hoarding and bank systemic risk: The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty

In this article, we use panel data from 457 listed banks in 20 countries to investigate the impact of bank liquidity hoarding on systemic risk in the banking sector and discuss it under the condition of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Empirical evidence suggests that when banks' liquidity hoarding increases, their systemic risk contribution decreases significantly. Furthermore, we demonstrate that bank liquidity hoarding works through the channel of improving bank operational stability and reducing bank asset risk. In addition, during a period of high EPU, bank liquidity hoarding has a more significant effect on reducing systemic risk. Our results remain stable after a battery of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the role of bank liquidity hoarding in reducing systemic risk is more significant in larger banks and banks in developed countries. Moreover, this effect is particularly pronounced when there is an accommodative monetary policy environment. Our study has some important implications for policymakers and regulators. Previous research suggests that policymakers may consider encouraging the banking sector to actively create liquidity instead of hoarding it, as this could lead to higher economic output. However, from the perspective of financial stability, banks' liquidity hoarding can help reduce their systemic risk contribution, especially in periods of high external uncertainty. Therefore, policymakers need to evaluate bank liquidity hoarding behaviour more comprehensively, and strike a balance between promoting economic growth and ensuring financial system stability to maximize overall welfare.

Product competition, political connections, and the costs of high leverage

This paper explores whether the political connections of listed firms in China affect the costs of high leverage on a firm's product competition. We collect a sample of 1341 non-state-owned firms (i.e., private firms) with political connections listed in the Chinese stock market from 2009 to 2019. Using the sensitivity of sales growth to high leverage to proxy for the costs of high leverage, we find that the negative effect of high leverage on sales growth is significantly lower for companies with political ties. Our results are robust to a series of endogeneity corrections and robustness checks. We also find that political connections benefit highly leveraged firms by reducing the adverse behavior of customers and competitors. However, the effect of political connections on the unfavorable actions of employees and suppliers is not statistically significant. In addition, the mitigating effect of political connections on high leverage costs is more pronounced in firms with low profitability, headquartered in low-trust provinces, and experiencing high economic policy uncertainty. Finally, we find that political connections can also mitigate the negative effect of high leverage on firms’ investment and profit. Overall, our findings suggest that political connections reduce the cost of high leverage.