Mathematical modeling of climate change impacts on stock market behavior: Evidence from Tanzania.

Fractional-order supply chain finance system with conformable derivative: Chaotic dynamics, complexity analysis, and RGB color image encryption

The success of every organisation depends on her financial capacity, which plays a fundamental role in production. In recent time, poor financial capacity among industries in the Nigerian productive sector has resulted into poor internal Control policies. This study investigated the impact of internal control and financial performance on small and medium scale enterprises in Kebbi State, Nigeria. A descriptive survey design research was adopted. The estimated workers’ population of all respondents selected as of 2025 were 2,200 which consist of CEO’s, Managers, and Internal control units of the various SMEs in Kebbi State, Nigeria. A total of 338 respondents were sampled for the study using simple random sampling technique. A self-designed questionnaire was administered. The Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient Analysis was employed to test the five hypotheses with a two-tailed test of significance at P<0.01 level. The results revealed that there is a significant relationship between individual internal control components and financial performance of small and medium enterprises in Kebbi state Nigeria. There also exists combined relationship between the internal control components (control environment, risk assessment, control activities, monitoring, information, and communication) and financial performance of small and medium enterprises in Kebbi state NNigeria. The study recommends regular and timely financial audits to help SMEs detect any gaps in their financial systems and financial performance. The management of the SME should conduct an annual evaluation of the financial reporting process and implement an internal audit system that permits monitoring of operational efficiency. The study also suggests that a frequent risk assessment be conducted so that SME management may determine whether or not their goals will be reached. In addition to implementing proper controls in the custody and disposal of assets, the management of a small to medium-scale enterprise (SME) should consider; control activities and information, and communication in order to improve financial performance.

The Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) industry faces significant financial management challenges due to the complexity of project financing, milestone-based payments, and multi-stakeholder collaboration. Traditional on-premise ERP financial systems are often inefficient, leading to delays in financial reporting, security vulnerabilities, and regulatory compliance difficulties. This study explores the development of cloud-based financial solutions tailored to the EPC industry, examining the benefits, challenges, and applicability of existing models such as Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Blockchain-based decentralized finance (DeFi). A Hybrid Cloud-Based Financial Framework is proposed, integrating SaaS for accounting, PaaS for customization, and Blockchain for secure transactions. Experimental validation demonstrates that cloud adoption reduces financial processing time by 87.5%, enhances cash flow visibility, improves security, and increases regulatory compliance efficiency by 40%. This paper highlights the importance of AI-driven predictive analytics, automated compliance, and hybrid cloud models in modern EPC finance and proposes strategies for overcoming integration challenges, cybersecurity risks, and workforce adoption barriers. Future research should focus on scaling hybrid cloud solutions globally and integrating AI-powered risk assessment tools.

The independence of the Federal Reserve, long an article of faith among lawmakers, is under attack. From the attempted removal of a member of the Board of Governors to an Executive Order subjecting the Federal Reserve's regulatory and supervisory actions to executive oversight, both the formal legal architecture and informal political norms that have long insulated the central bank from presidential control are being challenged in unprecedented ways. Amidst growing calls to reevaluate the Federal Reserve's mandate and strip the central bank of its regulatory and supervisory authority, recovering the neglected history of the Federal Reserve's role as a regulator and supervisor could not be timelier. Utilizing archival sources, this Article provides a comprehensive account of the dramatic, yet largely accidental, expansion of the Federal Reserve's regulatory and supervisory power over the course of the twentieth century. As the Article argues, the rise of the bank holding company, a corporation created to acquire and hold the stock of banks and other financial entities, as the dominant organizational structure of modern American finance unexpectedly transformed the Federal Reserve into the regulator-in-chief of the American financial system. Ultimately, retracing the Federal Reserve's inadvertent path to regulatory supremacy, and the efforts to reconfigure that arrangement over the twentieth century, serves as a critical reminder of the roads not traveled and opens up new possibilities in a key moment of reform.

ABSTRACT Agricultural policy-based finance (APF) is a crucial component of China’s rural finance system. It implements national agricultural policies and channels funds to key rural areas and vulnerable sectors, which helps increase rural income. We match county branch credit data from the Agricultural Development Bank of China with county-level macroeconomic data and build a panel of about 1453 counties from 2009 to 2018. With this panel, we estimate how APF affects rural residents’ income and test whether government size moderates the effect in a nonlinear way. APF increases income by supporting agricultural product prices, moving labour into non-agricultural employment, improving agricultural productivity, and optimizing agricultural production structure. These effects are larger in counties with higher rural human capital, more advanced digital finance, and looser household registration rules. Government size helps at first. This positive moderation will gradually weaken as the size of the government continues to grow and eventually even reverse, forming an inverted U-shaped pattern. Notably, setting higher economic growth targets weakens this inverted U-shaped moderation. These findings help policymakers clarify APF support’s external validity boundary and effect mechanisms, strengthening its role in rural poverty reduction and common prosperity.

Indonesia’s financial system is bank-centric, with banks managing approximately 78% of the nation’s financial assets; therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission depends on banks’ responsiveness to the central bank’s interest rate policy (the BI Rate). However, a policy-relevant anomaly persists: deposit rate pricing is more strongly anchored to the Deposit Insurance benchmark (IDIC Rate) than to the BI Rate. This study argues that this research is significant because it identifies a “Dual Benchmark System” that traditional single-anchor models fail to address, representing a critical friction in emerging market transmission. This study examines this dual-benchmark paradigm and the associated asymmetric risks using a panel VAR with a Generalized Impulse Response Function (GIRF) on quarterly data for 63 commercial banks from 2010 to 2024. The results indicate that IDIC Rate shocks have a larger and more persistent effect on deposit rates than BI Rate shocks, generating asymmetric transmission risks. This dominance creates a structural “price ceiling” that keeps funding costs high, ultimately raising lending rates for borrowers and distorting deposit growth rates. Furthermore, this analysis reveals that external policy signals are far more influential than internal financial performance. This suggests that under the Basel III framework and prevailing financial regulations, banks prioritize liquidity compliance and safety net protection over internal operational efficiency. Macroeconomic shocks remain weaker than policy shocks and dissipate more quickly. This finding reveals a potential systemic coordination risk, implying an urgent need for tighter policy coordination between the Central Bank and the IDIC to reduce structural frictions, maintain transmission effectiveness, and protect long-term financial stability.

Lean Accounting (LA) is increasingly adopted as a means to embed operational relevance into financial measurement systems, thereby improving the visibility of waste, flow, and value creation from an accounting perspective. However, its performance outcomes remain inconsistent and under-explored, particularly in the Chinese context. Drawing on Contingency Theory, this study develops and empirically tests a conceptual model to examine how LA practices influence firm financial performance, with overproduction costs acting as a mediating variable and internal control quality as a boundary condition. Using panel data from 27,991 individual company-year observations across multiple industries in China (2014–2023), we found that LA practices are positively associated with financial performance and negatively associated with overproduction costs. Further analysis confirms that overproduction costs partially mediate this relationship, while strong internal controls amplify both the direct and indirect effects of LA on performance. The study contributes to the production control literature by validating the role of LA in reducing costs and enhancing performance under specific contextual conditions.

Uganda hosts the largest refugee population in Africa, which exerts much pressure on the district health systems. While refugee-hosting districts (RH) receive targeted investments, the extent to which these influence maternal and child health (MCH) service coverage remains unclear. Using routine facility data, we examined differences in MCH coverage and trends between RH and non-refugee-hosting (non-RH) districts and also explored the effects of government health financing and health system performance on MCH coverage. We conducted a retrospective analysis utilizing routine health facility MCH data from the Uganda District Health Information System and district-level government Primary Healthcare (PHC) expenditure data from 2020 to 2023. MCH indicators were ANC1st trimester, ANC4, Institutional deliveries, mothers' Post-natal care (PNC), Measles1 and DPT3 vaccination. We computed a composite coverage index (CCI), health systems performance z-score and compared trends across RH and non-RH districts. Mixed Effects Models assessed the association between government expenditure, RH-status, health system performance over the years. RH districts consistently had modestly higher coverage of ANC1st trimester, ANC4, Institutional deliveries, PNC, Measles vaccination and CCI trends. Government expenditure was significantly higher in RH districts and refugee-dominant (RD) districts (p < 0.001 vs. p = 0.007). Refugee-dominant districts had higher but non-significant MCH coverage. Unadjusted models of MCH indicators and CCI were positively influenced by government financing and health systems performance z-score except for DPT3 and Measles, respectively. Adjusted models revealed that ANC4 coverage was 7.4% points higher in RH districts (7.42; 95% CI:0.753, 14.090; p = 0.029) and increased by 3.6% points for every unit increase in z-score (3.60; 95% CI: 0.729, 6.462; p = 0.014). CCI increased by 1.6% points and 2.3% points for every unit increased in the government expenditure and z-score respectively (1.55; 95% CI: 0.310, 2.788; p = 0.014) vs. (2.31; 95% CI: 0.642, 3.975; p = 0.007). Novel approach - leveraging routine facility data, revealed MCH coverage was modestly consistently higher in RH districts over the years and RH status influenced ANC4 coverage. Overall district-CCI depended on Government investment and health systems performance implying increase in PHC financing could be a key driver to universal district-level improvement.

This study develops and evaluates a hybrid Compliance–AI cybersecurity model for unified protection of traditional banking and decentralized finance (DeFi) systems in Brazil. Using publicly available data from the NIST Cybersecurity Framework, DeFi exploit repositories (REKT and DeFiLlama), Elliptic crypto-transaction graphs, IEEE-CIS fraud data, DARPA Transparent Computing datasets, and Monte Carlo–simulated cross-domain attack scenarios, the research applies hierarchical clustering, supervised learning, Markov chain modeling, and stochastic simulation. Results show that 45% of banking controls are transferable or hybridizable to DeFi, that embedding machine-readable compliance features improves ROC–AUC from 0.842 to 0.914 and reduces false positives by nearly 47%, and that bidirectional orchestration lowers escalation probability by over 54%. Monte Carlo analysis further indicates a 62% reduction in tail financial risk under the hybrid architecture. The study recommends machine-readable regulation, compliance-aware AI deployment, orchestrated enforcement layers, and expanded RegTech and SupTech adoption to strengthen systemic financial cybersecurity. Keywords: Compliance–AI Integration, Financial Cybersecurity, Decentralized Finance, Machine-Readable Regulation, Systemic Cyber Risk.

This study examines the statistical associations between commercialization-related cost structures and financial outcomes on revenue growth, profitability, and scale within a centralized financial system. We estimate four OLS models (M1–M4) using aggregated annual data from 2020 to 2025 and enhance our analysis with a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) scenario assessment. The findings demonstrate that revenue growth correlates positively with both SG&amp;A growth and commercialization efficiency (revenue per unit of SG&amp;A); however, SG&amp;A intensity exhibits a negative relationship with net margins. Logarithmic estimations indicate a robust co-scaling between operational expenses and revenues, implying growth driven by capacity rather than operating leverage. Lagged analysis also reveals an intertemporal trade-off, wherein phases of accelerated SG&amp;A expansion are succeeded by diminished subsequent growth. The findings underscore the necessity of differentiating between commercialization intensity and efficiency, and advise against viewing SG&amp;A growth as a consistent alignment of financial performance.

Financial development, which is an important driver of economic growth, also has critical impacts on environmental sustainability. This study takes a holistic approach to examining the environmental consequences of financial development through the ecological footprint indicator, which represents the ecological capacity required for the continuity of an economy. The Global Footprint Network states the ecological footprint must be below 1.5 gha to protect biodiversity. However, in 2022, Turkey’s per capita footprint was 2.58 gha. This shows its way of life isn’t sustainable, so policymakers need action plans based on solid data. Within this framework, the main objective of this study is to empirically examine the causal relationship between domestic loans, which are an indicator of financial depth, and foreign direct investment, which represents financial openness, in order to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the environmental impacts of financial development. The Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis was applied in the study covering the period 1985-2022. According to the analysis results, a two-way causal relationship was found between the ecological footprint and direct foreign investment, while a one-way causal relationship was identified between domestic loans and the ecological footprint. These findings show that both the national financial system and international capital flows have a direct impact on Turkey's environmental performance. The study's results emphasize that if the capital accumulation provided through these channels is directed toward environmentally conscious investment areas, it can give the financial development process a dynamic momentum focused on sustainability.

Learning outcomes This case study aims to assess the effectiveness of existing anti-money laundering measures and propose improvements based on statistical and ethical reasoning; analyze the variables involved in the case, mentioning the possible relationships between them with regard to asset laundering; evaluate the normality of the variables and the level of significance; create a multiple linear regression model using data analysis as a tool to create a new mechanism for the detection of asset laundering; and evaluate the ethical implications of implementing data-driven anti-money laundering systems in emerging markets. Case overview/synopsis This case study provides an introduction to the crime of asset laundering and shows the transaction details of a company that is possibly engaging in this crime. These data will allow Entidad Financiera y de Inversiones Peru to search for signs of illicit activity and determine if the company Easy Wash SAC is engaging in any illegal actions. To this end, Patricia Raza, executive manager of the financial entity, and her team must analyze the data and come up with a detection mechanism for asset laundering that can be applied to future highly suspicious clients, as well. Complexity academic level This case study is suitable for undergraduate courses: undergraduate students, postgraduate students and Master of Finance students. It is also applicable for MBA or graduate courses: financial system, detection mechanism management, decision-making, financial intelligence and security and data analysis. Supplementary material Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS1: Accounting and Finance.

Objective: The study examined the effect of deposit insurance on lending behaviour of quoted Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in Nigeria from 2015-2023. Deposit insurance was proxied by capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and premium rates while lending behavior was proxied by loan-to-deposit ratio. Theoretical Framework: The study was underpinned by the Hands-on theory of deposit insurance. Deposit insurance is supposed to contribute to the maintenance of banking system stability as one of the safety net arrangements. Method: The data was sourced from the individual audited financial reports of the listed DMBs in Nigeria. The study adopted the census approach, in which all the fourteen (14) listed DMBs in Nigeria were involved. Regression model was employed to estimate the relationship between deposit insurance and lending behaviour of listed DMBs in Nigeria. Results and Discussion: The results revealed that CAR had a positive significant effect on loan-to-deposit ratio of listed DMBs in Nigeria. While premium rates had insignificant effect on loan-to-deposit ratio of listed DMBs in Nigeria. Implications of the Research: The study recommended that the Central Bank of Nigeria should maintain and refine capital adequacy requirements in ways that encourage healthy capital buffers without restricting credit growth. Originality/Value: Measures such as countercyclical capital buffers and enhanced stress testing should be integrated to ensure resilience across economic cycles. Also, since the deposit insurance premium rate is risk based, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation should deepen the implementation of the methodology by assigning a higher weight to capital adequacy. Allowing greater variation in premium rates based on risk profiles will improve incentives for prudence, help reduce latent moral hazard, and improve the effectiveness of deposit insurance as a safety net mechanism within the financial system.

Mental health conditions remain a leading contributor to global disability, yet treatment coverage in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) stays below 20%; in Nigeria, services are underfunded and largely excluded from primary health care (PHC). This study documents the institutional processes through which the Transition-to-Scale phase of the Mental Health in Primary Care (MeHPriC) initiative scaled up task-shifted mental health services across Lagos State, Nigeria. A retrospective, mixed-methods descriptive-explanatory case study was conducted across 57 PHCs and five general hospitals. The intervention delivered care for five priority mental, neurological, and substance use conditions using the Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP) framework; 890 health workers were trained, comprising 400 Community Health Extension Workers (CHEWs), 250 nurses, 150 medical officers, 85 lay counsellors, and 5 district psychiatrists, under structured district-level supervision. Data from service registers, supervision checklists, stock audits, provider and client surveys, key informant interviews, focus groups, and policy documents were analysed using descriptive statistics and hybrid deductive-inductive thematic coding organised around the World Health Organization (WHO) Health System Building Blocks and selected Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) constructs. The initiative was associated with institutional changes across governance (establishment of a Mental Health Desk and a multi-sectoral Stakeholders Council), workforce supervision (fidelity rising from 13% to 92.3% of facilities conducting weekly case reviews), medicines (six psychotropic medications added to the Essential Medicines List; stockouts reduced by 42%), financing (₦75 million allocated through routine government budgeting), service delivery (64,107 clients screened and 9,138 initiated on treatment), and health information systems. Interpreted as incremental strengthening within the mental health subsystem, these findings reinforce the feasibility of mhGAP-aligned task-shifted care when supported by structured supervision and governance, while persistent fiscal and operational constraints underscore the fragility of institutional gains.

Purpose Financial development (FD) facilitates economic growth by improving resource efficiency and potentially boosting labor productivity (LP). This study aims to examine the association between LP and FD, foreign direct investment (FDI) and capital formation, while also assessing their moderating effects. Design/methodology/approach The study uses panel data regression to estimate the impact of FD, FDI and capital formation on LP across 82 developed and developing economies from 1991 to 2023. To address potential issues in the econometric analysis and ensure robustness, the study conducted a panel-data regression with clustered robust standard errors. Findings The analysis shows that domestic credit and capital formation significantly boost LP across all income levels. Surprisingly, FDI appears to negatively moderate the relationship between FD and LP. This dampening effect is more pronounced in developing economies compared to developed ones. Additionally, while capital formation negatively moderates the relationship in developing economies, it positively influences it in developed economies. Originality/value Studies to date have largely focused on the impact of FD on economic growth, thereby obscuring its specific impact on LP. This study focuses specifically on the FD-LP relationship. Moreover, none of the studies have analyzed the moderating impact of FDI and gross capital formation on this relationship. Thus, this study focuses on their moderating effects on the FD-LP relationship and explores their differential impact across developed and developing countries. Highlights Graphical abstract A informational graphic outlining study objectives, methodology, and findings regarding labor productivity. The informational graphic is organized into a header, two side-by-side horizontal text boxes, and four vertical text boxes. The top dark blue header contains the title “Does Financial Development Spur Labor Productivity? Evidence on the Moderating Roles of F D I and Capital Accumulation”. Below this, two boxes are placed side by side. The left text box states “1. This study aims to explore the association of labor productivity with financial development, foreign direct investment, and capital formation”. The right box states “2. This study seeks to address the critical empirical gap by explicitly examining the moderating roles of F D I and G C F in shaping the financial development and labor productivity nexus”. The four vertical text boxes are present below, titled “Research Objectives (Inputs)”, “Research Methodology”, “Key Findings (Outputs)”, and “Policy Implications”. Under “Research Objectives (Inputs)”, labels include “Financial Development (Domestic credit)”, “Foreign Direct Investment (F D I)”, and “Gross Capital Formation (G C F)”. “Research Methodology” lists “Panel Data Regression (1990 to 2023)”, “Countries equals 82”, and “Techniques: Fixed Effect slash Random Effect”. “Key Findings (Outputs)” list “Positive Effects” noting “Credit and G C F improve labor productivity” and “Neutral slash Negative Effects” noting “No impact of F D I” and “The moderating effects of F D I and G C F vary across developed and developing economies”. “Policy Implications” state “Well-functioning financial systems are key to raising labor productivity” and “Complementary policies on investment efficiency and absorptive capacity are needed in developing economies”. A bottom footer text box states “Conclusion: The availability of finance is very crucial for improving labor productivity”.

This research is based on the complexity of financial management in the XYZ marketplace, which still relies on manual processes, resulting in a high risk of errors, time inefficiencies, and inaccuracies in financial statements. This research aims to develop a financial information system based on PSAK 2025 with accounting automation to improve the efficiency and accuracy of financial data management. This research uses a qualitative prototyping method, comprising requirements gathering, module prototyping (COA, journals, AP, AR, financial reports), expert evaluation, refinement, and dummy data testing. Primary data comes from interviews with accounting experts, while secondary data comes from literature and documentation. The results showed that the system managed to achieve 100% recording accuracy, reduce reporting time by 99.9% (from 8 hours to under 5 seconds), and meet the PSAK 2025 standards in account classification, revenue recognition, and financial report presentation. The system also implements Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) for data security and automated transaction processing for typical marketplace transactions. This research contributes to the provision of a fully integrated, real-time, and audit-ready financial information system that can serve as a reference for similar digital platforms in Indonesia.

Cybersecurity and financial systems: a global perspective on research fragmentation and innovation gaps

This study aims to deeply analyze the mechanism by which the issuance of green bonds affects the ESG evaluation of enterprises. Using the sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2023, the dual difference method was employed to empirically analyze the impact of green bond issuance on the ESG performance of companies and its mechanism. The study found: Firstly, compared with enterprises that issue ordinary bonds, the issuance of green bonds significantly improved the ESG rating of enterprises. This conclusion remained robust even after controlling for endogeneity issues and replacing variables. Secondly, the mechanism test indicated that green bonds indirectly improved the ESG performance of enterprises through three paths: enhancing information disclosure transparency, reducing agency costs, and promoting green innovation. Thirdly, the heterogeneity analysis showed that the promotion effect of green bonds on ESG was more significant in non-state-owned enterprises, heavy-polluting industries, and enterprises in the eastern region. This study not only enriches the theoretical system of green finance and enterprise sustainable development, but also provides empirical evidence for policy makers to guide enterprises to optimize ESG practices through green bond financing.

This paper explores how regional innovation ecosystems support the growth of technology startups, using Hangzhou's "Six Little Dragons" as a case study. Drawing on innovation ecosystem theory, regional innovation systems, and new trade theory, the study analyzes how talent, capital, and industrial coordination jointly shape firm development. The paper identifies three key mechanisms: sustained talent attraction and knowledge spillovers anchored in universities and research institutions; a full-lifecycle financial support system characterized by a "patient government" and patient capital that mitigates early-stage market failures; and industrial chain coordination combined with scenario-based innovation that accelerates technology validation and market entry. The findings suggest that the success of Hangzhou's technology firms stems from systematic ecosystem interactions rather than isolated firm-level advantages, offering policy-relevant insights for enhancing regional innovation capacity in other cities.