Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Climatic changes: knowledge and adaptation behavior to heat-related illness among solid waste disposal workers

BackgroundEarth’s climate changes are progressing at an alarming rate. One of the most severe effects of climate change is extreme heat. This study aimed to assess knowledge and adaptation behavior to heat-related illness (HRI) among solid waste disposal workers in the 10th of Ramadan City, Egypt, and to study the predictors for their knowledge and adaptation behavior.MethodsAn exploratory cross-sectional study was conducted on 220 solid waste disposal workers. A structured interview questionnaire was used to assess the studied workers’ sociodemographic and occupational characteristics, heat exposure risk, and their knowledge, and adaptation behavior.ResultsThe results showed that 40% and 30% of participants had adequate levels of total knowledge and adaptation behavior, respectively. There was a statistically significant relationship between workers’ knowledge and both age and education. There was a statistically significant relationship between workers’ adaptation behavior and age, duration of employment, working hours, and education. A binary logistic regression for significant predictors of knowledge and adaptation behavior showed that age and education were the most significant predictors.ConclusionSolid waste disposal workers were at high risk of HRI due to their low levels of knowledge and adaptation behavior regarding HRI. Educational health programs that guide workers to follow healthy behaviors and prevent HRI are recommended.

Unveiling asymmetry impacts of economic policy uncertainty on climate change: fresh insights into African Countries.

This study investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty on climate change in selected African countries within asymmetric settings. Although previous research has examined the impact of various economic factors on climate change, the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty have not been thoroughly explored, particularly in African countries. We analyze annual data spanning from 1980 to 2017 by utilizing three models: Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL-PMG), Panel Pooled Mean Group-non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL-PMG), and Dumitrescu-Hurlin asymmetric causality tests. According to the results of ARDL-PMG estimation, economic policy uncertainty has a detrimental impact on climate change in the long run. However, the NARDL-PMG estimation suggests that a positive shock in economic policy uncertainty negatively affects long-term climate change mitigation. However, a negative shock has a beneficial effect on climate change in the long term. In African nations, positive and negative changes in economic policy uncertainty failed to generate any significant climate change effects in the short run. The results also reveal that both positive and negative shocks in economic policy may cause climate change in a one-way direction. Based on the findings of our study, we recommend that African policymakers implement programs aimed at reducing economic policy uncertainties to help mitigate the effects of climate change.

Combining mesocosms with models reveals effects of global warming and ocean acidification on a temperate marine ecosystem.

Ocean warming and species exploitation have already caused large-scale reorganization of biological communities across the world. Accurate projections of future biodiversity change require a comprehensive understanding of how entire communities respond to global change. We combined a time-dynamic integrated food web modeling approach (Ecosim) with previous data from community-level mesocosm experiments to determine the independent and combined effects of ocean warming, ocean acidification and fisheries exploitation on a well-managed temperate coastal ecosystem. The mesocosm parameters enabled important physiological and behavioral responses to climate stressors to be projected for trophic levels ranging from primary producers to top predators, including sharks. Through model simulations, we show that under sustainable rates of fisheries exploitation, near-future warming or ocean acidification in isolation could benefit species biomass at higher trophic levels (e.g., mammals, birds, and demersal finfish) in their current climate ranges, with the exception of small pelagic fishes. However, under warming and acidification combined, biomass increases at higher trophic levels will be lower or absent, while in the longer term reduced productivity of prey species is unlikely to support the increased biomass at the top of the food web. We also show that increases in exploitation will suppress any positive effects of human-driven climate change, causing individual species biomass to decrease at higher trophic levels. Nevertheless, total future potential biomass of some fisheries species in temperate areas might remain high, particularly under acidification, because unharvested opportunistic species will likely benefit from decreased competition and show an increase in biomass. Ecological indicators of species composition such as the Shannon diversity index decline under all climate change scenarios, suggesting a trade-off between biomass gain and functional diversity. By coupling parameters from multilevel mesocosm food web experiments with dynamic food web models, we were able to simulate the generative mechanisms that drive complex responses of temperate marine ecosystems to global change. This approach, which blends theory with experimental data, provides new prospects for forecasting climate-driven biodiversity change and its effects on ecosystem processes.

CAN CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT INCOME-GENERATING ACTIVITIES?: EVIDENCE FROM FARMERS IN ENUGU STATE NIGERIA

The need to analyze the changes that the effect of climate change brings on the income-generating activities of farmers in Enugu state necessitated this study. The study examined farmers' socio-economic characteristics, described the perceived climate change effects, analyzed changes in income-generating activities, and evaluated the link between socio-economic factors and income-generating activities. Primary data were collected from 120 respondents using well-structured questionnaires. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Pearson product-moment correlation. The results showed that the majority (73.3%) of the respondents were male farmers. Results of the study also showed that reduction in productivity (89.2%), change in farming pattern (77.5%), and soil degradation (65.0%) were the most perceived effects of climatic change among the respondents. The result also revealed strong negative change in income-generating activities in the areas of goat/sheep rearing (-33.4), fishing (-32.5), rabbit rearing (-15.0), and basket weaving (15.0), while petty trading (+23.4), hair barbing (+18.3) and food vending (+15.8) had strong positive change in the study area. The study revealed that socio-economic characteristics such as marital status, household size, and years of farming experience are correlated with positive income-generating activities. The study recommends that farmers should prioritize positive income-generating activities that correlate with their socio-economic characteristics. The study also recommends the implementation of crop rotation and organic manure as one of the ecological practices for climate change mitigation.

A PPP kinematic application on historical GPS data: the reprocessing of the ITASE98-99 Antarctica mission height profiles

The analysis of altimetric profiles in Antarctica and their evolution over the years is a sensitive topic for the scientific community since it helps understand the effects of climate change that the continent undergoes. Different geomatic techniques, including the GNSS technology, can be employed to obtain altimetric profiles. However, the GNSS differenced approaches, such as the Post Processing Kinematic, are hardly usable to define long profiles in Antarctica because of the low number of CORS stations. In these conditions, the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) approach is a valid alternative to avoid processing very long baselines. The aim of this article is to define a standard procedure for the processing of historical GPS data, thanks to the availability of a dataset from the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition, which took place between 1998 and 1999 (ITASE98-99). This expedition focused on mapping the Antarctic territory, subdividing it by nations of influence, using geophysical and geodetic technologies, including GPS. The altimetric profiles had already been calculated in 2002 by the Geomatics group of the University of Bologna using the Gipsy-OASIS II software. In this work, the new version of the JPL software, GipsyX, is used to apply the newly implemented models and reprocessed products. The calibration of the processing parameters leading to the final PPP solution is described in the paper, including details on the implementation of a post-processing filtering procedure. The average a posteriori elevation error is 4.6 cm, while 99% of them are within 27 cm. The comparison of the new results to both the previous processing and the REMA elevation model shown that about double the number of solutions are now available, meter-level elevation spikes have been avoided, and a half meter bias is now reduced to a few centimeters. Given the almost 15 years difference between the 1999.0 expedition epoch and the REMA reference epoch, the obtained results can be used to study accumulation/erosion effects on the Antarctica ice sheet.

The “Turning Point” for the Fall Goose Hunt in Eeyou Istchee: A Social-Ecological Regime Shift from an Indigenous Knowledge Perspective

AbstractWe present a perspective on how the Eeyou (James Bay Cree) from Eeyou Istchee (Eastern James Bay, Québec) understand the transformation of their traditional fall goose hunt system as a consequence of social and environmental changes across marine and terrestrial ecosystems with drivers operating at the local, regional and continental scales. Eeyou land users from the Chisasibi and Wemindji First Nations report that their traditional fall goose hunt underwent a “turning point” during the early 2000s. Not only did the abundance of Canadian geese reach a historical low, but their feeding and migratory behavior became unpredictable. Eeyou land users associate such abrupt changes with the massive eelgrass die-off of the late 1990s, the onset of the effects of climate change on coastal habitats experienced since the 1970s, and agricultural development along geese flyways. This manuscript is an outcome of the Eeyou Knowledge component of the Coastal Habitat Comprehensive Research Project (2016–2022) and followed a community-based case study approach that included 28 semi-structured interviews and 14 mapping interviews with Eeyou research contributors. The findings presented here underscore the capacity of Indigenous knowledge to make sense of the multifaceted impacts of environmental change across various dimensions and layers of their social-ecological system, including management strategies and values.

Assessing the effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in Kokcha River, Afghanistan

ABSTRACT This study critically assesses the combined effects of climate and land-use change on flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, Afghanistan, spanning the period from 2010 to 2021 and projecting forward to 2088–2099. Through the application of a bias-corrected model, we achieved high accuracy in temperature and precipitation simulations, with notable NSE values of 0.9 and 0.69, and R2 values of 0.92 and 0.78, respectively. Future streamflow simulations under different scenarios highlight climate change as the major driver influencing flood recurrence in the Kokcha River, contributing to 101.1% of the total variation, while land-use change has a minimal contribution of −1.1%. Our analysis of precipitation, average temperature, and streamflow data reveals significant patterns and changes, with future projections indicating a gradual decline in precipitation levels, mean temperature, and streamflow. Flood frequency analysis for return periods of 10, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, considering different scenarios, underscores the likelihood of floods of varying magnitudes. Notably, the highest streamflow spikes under both scenarios highlight the impact of futuristic air temperature and precipitation on flood recurrence. The study advocates prioritizing climate change adaptation and resilient land-use strategies to ensure sustainable water resource management, emphasizing the mitigation of potential flood risks.

Climate Change and Mental Health (A Global Analysis)

Climate change and its corresponding consequences have been recognized as one of the dominating issues of global concern. Many governments of various nations are currently making efforts to mitigate the undesirable consequences of climate change. The essay is focused on carrying out an analysis of the effect of climate change on mental health in the United Kingdom. The paper presented a methodological framework for the diverse and multiple channels by which climate change impacts on a person’s mental health. In connection with this, this methodological analysis led to the conceptualization of the variables that link or mediate the effect of climate change on human mental health and corresponding well-being. There was an exploration of evidence-based analysis of climate change modifies the variables that impact mental health; this will take care of the expression of the diverse pathways of effect. The essay recognizes that despite the mental health dangers and risks associated with climate change, adopting a strategic climate action can also be a window of opportunity to harness its impact and engage in proactive and preventable measures.

Acidic Apple Snails: Effects of Climate Change on The Mechanical Properties of An Invasive Gastropod.

Climate change can directly and indirectly affect species distribution. Warming may allow for invasive species, such as apple snails, to migrate to higher latitudes where temperatures are more conducive to their survival and invasion success. Higher temperatures and lower pH ranges have been previously documented to affect the form and function of calcium carbonate shells, which serve many functions including protection from predators and thermoregulation. This study aimed to quantify differences in the morphology and mechanical properties of invasive apple snail, Pomacea maculata, shells after altering temperature and pH. We mechanically tested shells among three five-week treatments: control, higher temperature, lower pH. Ultimate Strength increased in shells that were exposed to higher temperatures, but Young's Modulus and Peak Load did not differ among control, temperature, and pH treatments. Apple snails in higher temperature tanks increased their shell length over the five-week trials, while snails in lower pH tanks decreased their shell length. Although snail morphometrics did not differ between sexes, male shells exhibited a higher Peak Load, Young's Modulus, and Ultimate Strength compared to female shells. Our findings are consistent with previous gastropod studies, in that a lower pH is associated with a decrease in shell size, and higher temperatures yield larger snail shells with a higher Ultimate Strength. Peak Load did not significantly differ among treatments, which suggests that the cross-sectional area is relatively important when considering this species mechanical performance today and in future climates. Due to the intense nutritional and calcium demands of egg production, female snails may be more susceptible to weakened shells due to low pH environments caused by climate change.

Morphological and physiological features in small ruminants: an adaptation strategy for survival under changing climatic conditions.

Climate change due to natural human activity is a significant global phenomenon affecting the sustainability of most countries' livestock industries. Climate change factors such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, direct and indirect sun radiation, and wind have significant consequences on feed, water, pasture availability, and the re-emergence of diseases in livestock. All these variables have a considerable impact on livestock production and welfare. However, animals' ability to respond and adapt to changes in climate differs within species and breeds. Comparatively, small ruminants are more adaptive to the adverse effects of climate change than large ruminants in terms of reproduction performance, survival, production yield, and resistance to re-emerging diseases. This is mainly due to their morphological features against harsh climate effects. Tropical breeds are more adaptive to the adverse effects of climate change than small temperate ruminants. However, the difference in morphological characteristics towards adaptation to the impact of climate change will guide the development of suitable policies on the selection of breeding stock suitable for different regions in the world. The choice of breeds based on morphological features and traits is an essential strategy in mitigating and minimizing the effects of climate change on small ruminants' production and welfare. This review highlights the adaptive morphological features within and among breeds of small ruminants toward adaptation to climate change.

Modeling tropical tuna shifts: An inflated power logit regression approach.

We introduce a new class of zero-or-one inflated power logit (IPL) regression models, which serve as a versatile tool for analyzing bounded continuous data with observations at a boundary. These models are applied to explore the effects of climate changes on the distribution of tropical tuna within the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that our modeling approach is adequate and capable of handling the outliers in the data. It exhibited superior performance compared to rival models in both diagnostic analysis and regarding the inference robustness. We offer a user-friendly method for fitting IPL regression models in practicalapplications.

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

AbstractIn March 2020, an extreme rainfall in Baixada Santista, Brazil, led to a series of landslides affecting more than 2800 people and resulting losses exceeding USD 43 million. This attribution study compared extreme rainfall in two large ensembles of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-GA6 model that represented the event with and without the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Antecedent rainfall conditions on two different timescales are considered, namely extreme 60-day rainfall (Rx60day) which relates to the soil moisture conditions and extreme 3-day rainfall (Rx3day) which represents landslide triggering heavy rainfall. In the scenario including both natural and human-induced factors the antecedent 60 day rainfall became 74% more likely, while the short-term trigger was 46% more likely. The anthropogenic contribution to changes in rainfall accounted for 20–42% of the total losses and damages. The greatest economic losses occurred in Guarujá (42%), followed by São Vicente (30%) and Santos (28%). Landslides were responsible for 47% of the homes damaged, 85% of the homes destroyed, all reported injuries, and 51% of the deaths associated with heavy rainfall. Changes in land cover and urbanization showed a pronounced increase in urbanized area in Guarujá (107%), São Vicente (61.7%) and Santos (36.9%) and a reduction in farming area. In recent years, the region has experienced an increase in population growth and a rise in the proportion of irregular and/or precarious housing in high-risk areas. Guarujá has the highest number of such dwellings, accounting for 34.8%. Our estimates suggest that extreme precipitation events are having shorter return periods due to climate change and increased urbanization and population growth is exposing more people to these events. These findings are especially important for decision-makers in the context of disaster risk reduction and mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Production and emission characterization of briquette for sustainable development: MSW transformation.

Global community is increasingly alarmed by resource depletion and environmental pollution. In light of pressing environmental concerns and depletion of finite resources, the surge in fossil fuel usage has sparked twin crises: dwindling fossil fuel reserves and escalating environmental pollution. The current study introduces a novel approach to minimize waste by transforming it into briquettes suitable for large-scale production. Production of briquettes involves multiple stages, including collection, drying, crushing, screening, blending, compacting, and storage. The main objective of this research is to demonstrate and investigate the physico-mechanical and emission properties of briquettes produced with readily available organic fraction of municipal solid waste (MSW) such as food and garden waste. The physical, mechanical, and elemental characteristics such as calorific value, moisture content, ash, volatile matter, fixed carbon, density, compressive strength, and SEM-EDAX were determined. A combustibility test along with emission and water boiling test was also carried out. The MSW briquettes were prepared in a densification system at 130°C temperature and 20MPa. The study's conclusion suggests that the MSW briquette with lignin content of 25-30%, calorific value of 22.53MJ/kg, compressive strength of 14.517 N/mm2, and density of 1124.12kgm-3 could be used to retain energy and lessen the harmful effects of climate change while also enhancing sustainability. Flue gas emissions from burning MSW briquettes in a biomass stove were examined in this study using flue gas analyzer and smoke meter. Furthermore, the generated briquettes exhibit a density of 1124.12kgm-3 which is on par with coal, making them suitable for co-firing in boilers. Likewise, the determined parameters are compared with the biomass briquettes and firewood. Further investigation is required to elevate its quality and economic potential.

Mitigating Emerging and Reemerging Diseases of Fruit and Vegetable Crops in a Changing Climate.

Fruit and vegetable crops are important sources of nutrition and income globally. Producing these high-value crops requires significant investment of often scarce resources, and, therefore, the risks associated with climate change and accompanying disease pressures are especially important. Climate change influences the occurrence and pressure of plant diseases, enabling new pathogens to emerge and old enemies to reemerge. Specific environmental changes attributed to climate change, particularly temperature fluctuations and intense rainfall events, greatly alter fruit and vegetable disease incidence and severity. In turn, fruit and vegetable microbiomes, and subsequently overall plant health, are also affected by climate change. Changing disease pressures cause growers and researchers to reassess disease management and climate change adaptation strategies. Approaches such as climate smart integrated pest management, smart sprayer technology, protected culture cultivation, advanced diagnostics, and new soilborne disease management strategies are providing new tools for specialty crops growers. Researchers and educators need to work closely with growers to establish fruit and vegetable production systems that are resilient and responsive to changing climates. This review explores the effects of climate change on specialty food crops, pathogens, insect vectors, and pathosystems, as well as adaptations needed to ensure optimal plant health and environmental and economic sustainability.

Empowering Students to Create Climate-Friendly Schools

In Germany, there are over 32,000 schools, representing great potential for climate protection. On the one hand, this applies to educational work, as understanding the effects of climate change and measures to reduce GHG emissions is an important step to empower students with knowledge and skills. On the other hand, school buildings are often in bad condition, energy is wasted, and the possibilities for using renewable energies are hardly used. In our “Schools4Future” project, we enabled students and teachers to draw up their own CO2 balances, identify weaknesses in the building, detect wasted electricity, and determine the potential for using renewable energies. Emissions from the school cafeteria, school trips, and paper consumption could also be identified. The fact that the data can be collected by the students themselves provides increased awareness of the contribution made to the climate balance by the various school areas. The most climate-friendly school emits 297 kg whilst the school with the highest emissions emits over one ton CO2 per student and year. Our approach is suitable to qualify students in the sense of citizen science, carry out a scientific investigation, experience self-efficacy through one’s own actions, and engage politically regarding their concerns.

Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change

The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.

Enhancing Irrigated Land Use Efficiency in Southern Kazakhstan's Agricultural Sectors

This study aims to improve the efficiency of irrigated land use in the agricultural sectors of southern Kazakhstan. This region is known for its significant contribution to the nation's agricultural output. Recognizing the challenges posed by suboptimal water management practices and the increasing effects of climate change, this research takes a multidisciplinary approach to propose sustainable agricultural practices. We conducted an empirical analysis over a three-year period, comparing current irrigation techniques with the implementation of innovative water-saving technologies. The study also evaluates the socio-economic impacts of improved irrigation practices on local farming communities. Preliminary results indicate that the use of precision irrigation systems can greatly reduce water wastage and increase crop yields. Additionally, the research highlights the crucial role of farmer education and cooperative management structures in achieving sustainable water use. By combining technological advancements with community-based management, this study provides a scalable model for optimizing irrigated land use that could be replicated throughout Central Asia. The findings aim to contribute to policy discussions on sustainable agriculture in arid regions, emphasizing the importance of tailored solutions that address both environmental and socio-economic factors.

Snow depth has greater influence on moss biocrusts' soil multifunctionality than the number of freeze-thaw cycles

Continued global warming and changes in precipitation patterns, especially regarding snow depth and freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs), have significantly affected the hydrothermal environment in winter at mid- and high-latitudes. In this study, we assessed the effects of changes in snow depth and FTCs, on the biogeochemical cycling of biological soil crusts. We collected moss crust soil samples from a temperate desert in northwest China, and measured the changes in the amount of snow (65 % snow removal, ambient snow, and 65 % snow increase) and FTCs (FT0, FT5, and FT15) under an artificial environment simulation, to determine the nutrient content and enzyme activities related to soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles. In terms of how snowfall and FTCs affect soil multifunctionality (SMF) of desert moss crusts, the research findings demonstrated that snow depth, FTCs, and their interplay have a significant influence on the carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus contents, enzyme activities, and SMF of moss crusts. Compared to snow removal, an increase in snow depth corresponded to a significant increase in the soil water content, and an improvement in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling and SMF. The number of FTCs increased, which led to enhancements in soil phosphorus cycling, soil total phosphorus, and available phosphorus content, together with a reduction in inorganic nitrogen content and the activities of certain enzymes involved in carbon and nitrogen cycling. The structural equation model indicated that snow depth had the greatest effect (total effect of 0.165) on SMF in moss crusts compared to FTCs (total effect of 0.048). Therefore, it is necessary to consider snow depth when examining the effects of climate change on nutrient cycling in the biological soil crusts of temperate deserts.

Irregularity and time series trend analysis of rainfall in Johor, Malaysia

Due to its effect on weather and its propensity to cause catastrophic incidents, climate change has garnered considerable global attention. Depending on the area, the effects of climate change may vary. Rainfall is among the most significant meteorological factors associated with climate change. In Malaysia, changes in rainfall distribution pattern have led to many floods and droughts events which lead to La Nina and El Nino where Johor is one of the states in southern part that usually affected. Thus, rainfall trend analysis is important to identify changes in rainfall pattern as it gives an initial overview for future analysis. This research aims to evaluate historical rainfall data of Johor between 1991 to 2020. Normality and homogeneity tests were used to ensure the quality of data followed by Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope analysis to determine rainfall trend as the rainfall data is not normally distributed (p > 0.05). Standardized precipitation anomaly, coefficient of variation, precipitation concentration index and rainfall anomaly index were used to identify rainfall variability and intensity while standard precipitation index was used to evaluate drought severity. The lowest annual rainfall recorded was 1725.07 mm in 2016 and the highest was 2993.19 mm in 2007. Annual rainfall and seasonal rainfall showed a declining trend although it is not statistically significant (p> 0.05). Results reveal that Johor experienced extreme wet and dry years, leading to drought and flood incidents. Major floods arose in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011 while driest years occurred in 1997, 1998 and 2016 which led to El Nino phenomenon. March and April were identified as the driest months among all. Thus, the findings from this study would assist researchers and decision-makers in the development of applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce climate change impact. It is recommended that more data analysis from more stations should be done in the future research study to obtain a clearer view and more comprehensive results.

Widespread breakdown in masting in European beech due to rising summer temperatures.

Climate change effects on tree reproduction are poorly understood, even though the resilience of populations relies on sufficient regeneration to balance increasing rates of mortality. Forest-forming tree species often mast, i.e. reproduce through synchronised year-to-year variation in seed production, which improves pollination and reduces seed predation. Recent observations in European beech show, however, that current climate change can dampen interannual variation and synchrony of seed production and that this masting breakdown drastically reduces the viability of seed crops. Importantly, it is unclear under which conditions masting breakdown occurs and how widespread breakdown is in this pan-European species. Here, we analysed 50 long-term datasets of population-level seed production, sampled across the distribution of European beech, and identified increasing summer temperatures as the general driver of masting breakdown. Specifically, increases in site-specific mean maximum temperatures during June and July were observed across most of the species range, while the interannual variability of population-level seed production (CVp) decreased. The declines in CVp were greatest, where temperatures increased most rapidly. Additionally, the occurrence of crop failures and low seed years has decreased during the last four decades, signalling altered starvation effects of masting on seed predators. Notably, CVp did not vary among sites according to site mean summer temperature. Instead, masting breakdown occurs in response to warming local temperatures (i.e. increasing relative temperatures), such that the risk is not restricted to populations growing in warm average conditions. As lowered CVp can reduce viable seed production despite the overall increase in seed count, our results warn that a covert mechanism is underway that may hinder the regeneration potential of European beech under climate change, with great potential to alter forest functioning and community dynamics.