Research indicates that people often end their childbearing years with fewer children than they had expected in young adulthood. However, our understanding of the role of infertility in explaining this discrepancy remains limited. Using data from 10 low-fertility countries included in the second round of the Generations and Gender Survey, this study examines the correspondence between ideal and actual family size among men and women, as well as the influence of infertility and socioeconomic factors on whether they achieved the number of children they considered ideal for themselves. The results show that up to half of men and women end their reproductive years wishing they had more children. Having experienced infertility stands out as a key predictor of this gap, increasing the likelihood of underachieving one's ideal family size by 17 percent and 26 percent among childless men and women, and by 12 percent and 19 percent among those with one child.

Abstract This study investigates how broadband internet affects rural–urban migration in China using the Universal Broadband and Telecommunication Services pilot program launched in 2015 as a quasi‐experimental setting. Analyzing China Household Finance Survey data (2013–2021) with difference‐in‐differences estimation, we find that improved internet access significantly increased rural–urban migration by 3.2–3.4 percentage points, representing a 17.5–18.6 percent rise over the baseline migration rates of 18.3 percent. Effects were strongest in villages with fewer initial migrants, closer to county centers, and with better road infrastructure. At the individual level, impacts were largest among women, younger individuals, the more educated, and those from higher income households. The mechanism appears to be increased access to economic information. Our findings suggest broadband creates “digital routes” that facilitate out‐migration rather than “digital roots” that anchor residents to rural areas.

Abstract It is well established that women's labor force participation drops markedly with marriage and childbearing, however, little is known about women's labor market transitions, especially in developing countries. This article uses the Indonesian Family Life Survey to track the employment histories of over 5000 women for more than 20 years, observing women as they get married and have children. The data show that large numbers of Indonesian women drop out of the labor market as a result of marriage and childbearing, particularly from the formal sector. Having worked in the formal sector prior to the birth of a first child reduces the probability of working in the year following the birth by 20 percentage points and reduces the probability of returning to the labor market thereafter by 3.6 percentage points. If women do return to work, formal sector employment is associated with greater delays in returning. There is little evidence of women switching from the formal to the informal sector. Formal sector labor market policies such as flexible work hours, part‐time work, the ability to work from home, and work‐based childcare are likely to boost women's labor force participation, with consequent boosts to economic productivity and prosperity.

Abstract This study documents the concentration of childbearing to later reproductive ages, analyzing global patterns of fertility postponement from 1950 to 2040. We study late fertility (ages 30+) and very late fertility (ages 35+) trends at the global, subregional, and national levels using data for all countries and areas of the world since 1950 and historical data for eleven countries dating to 1850. The analysis reveals a significant shift toward late fertility in developed regions only, with fertility increasingly occurring after age 30. Globally, more than one out of three births in 2023 occurs to women aged 30 and above, compared to only one in four in 1990. Historical comparisons indicate similar late fertility patterns in pre‐demographic transition populations and early industrialized societies. The share of childbearing at age 35 among those aged 30 and above is, however, not universally increasing with declining fertility. The study identifies substantial regional disparities in late fertility trends, with some regions maintaining stable late fertility timing despite changes in total fertility levels.

Abstract Between 1990 and 2019, primary school enrollment in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) surged from 62 million to 187 million students. Despite this growth, SSA remains one of the most unequal continents, challenging the notion that educational expansion reduces wealth inequality. This paper investigates the correlation between educational expansion and household wealth inequality in SSA by conceptualizing educational expansion as distinct regimes with varying educational compositions and rates of expansion, rather than a sequential increase in the proportion of educated populations. Utilizing Demographic and Health Surveys from 15 SSA countries, this paper decomposes changes in household wealth inequality across four expansion regimes spanning the 1990s and 2010s. Contrary to predictions that educational expansion and wealth inequality would follow an inverted U‐shaped curve as proposed by the Kuznets hypothesis, evidence reveals considerable cross‐country variation. Decomposition analysis demonstrates that the level of inequality varies by the overall educational composition and the relative pace of expansion between primary and secondary education. These findings highlight the importance of categorizing educational expansion as distinct regimes by revealing how seemingly similar educational expansions have vastly different associations with wealth inequality.

Abstract This study examines the relationship between fertility and social policies across countries within the European Union. Using European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU‐SILC) data from 2005 to 2020, the research investigates how increases and reductions in family allowances are connected to the likelihood of subsequent births in the short term. Based on the social investment hypothesis and a general expansion of family policies in the European Union since 2005, we investigate if and how increased family support contributes to birth events within families. The novel contribution of the analysis is to assess asymmetric fertility reactions to changes in family‐related social benefits. We present the first comparative study that not only analyses expansive policy changes but also retrenchments. Specifically, we look at changes in benefit generosity and universalism from one year to another. Findings indicate that enhancing the generosity of cash benefits is positively related to an increase in the likelihood of having a child. However, reductions in generosity are associated with larger declines in fertility responses, highlighting a negativity bias. In contrast, changes in universalism exhibit more symmetric behavioral responses, with expansions and retrenchments linked to comparable effect sizes regarding subsequent births. Similarly, the combined indicator of generosity and universalism reveals balanced associations in both directions.

Abstract A larger working‐age population supports economic and social development, and many developing countries are currently benefiting from this demographic window. However, internal migration—often age‐selective—can create subnational inequalities by redistributing working‐age individuals from less developed areas to cities in search of employment and upward social mobility. While many studies have explored the age selectivity of migration, few have examined its impact on subnational age structures, and none have assessed variation within urban areas using globally representative data from the Global South. This study addresses that gap by analyzing how migration affects the working‐age population across the urban hierarchy during national urbanization, using 103 microcensuses from 46 developing countries. Findings show that internal migration's impact varies by urbanization level: it generally increases the share of working‐age individuals in cities but has the opposite effect in rural areas. In big cities, migration boosts the working‐age share, but this effect weakens and eventually reverses in smaller towns and rural areas. These patterns are largely driven by migration among young adults aged 15–24. The study advances a generalizable theory on migration's role in shaping age structures, helping to explain subnational variations in the demographic dividend and supporting more targeted policy planning.

An abundant demographic literature examines the impacts of climatic and environmental change on human migration and health. However, somewhat less is known about the effects of environmental changes, especially flood events, on fertility despite plausible reasons to expect such impacts. We address this gap by examining the relationship between exposure to flooding and fertility in Bangladesh, which has experienced several catastrophic flood events in recent decades. We link birth records from the Demographic and Health Survey with satellite-derived measures of flooding from 2001 through 2018 and fit regression models to measure the effects of flood exposures on the probability of live births in subsequent years. To explore pathways, we also construct and analyze panels of women's entry into first marriage and mortality among under-5 children. Flooding has uneven effects on fertility across the target population. We detect statistically and substantively meaningful flood-related increases in childbearing among less-educated and higher-parity women; but find flood-related fertility declines among childless women and those in urban areas. Results also suggest that flood-related delays in marriage among urban women may explain their reductions in fertility. However, findings otherwise provide little systematic evidence that marriage and child mortality mediate the links between flood exposures and fertility.