ABSTRACT Predicting returns is a timeless and important economic topic. Fundamental analysts see identifying time‐varying predictive factors as a key goal in asset pricing. This paper provides strong evidence of time‐varying return predictability of the S&P 500 Index from 1929 to 2020, by proposing the construction of altered versions of the classical dividend‐price (dp) and earnings‐price (ep). Our study's primary objectives are to introduce a cyclical adjustment to the simple dp and ep, which would smooth dividends and earnings, to compare the predictive dynamics of these new ratios with their simple counterparts and to modify all ratios based on long‐run equilibrium relationships that arise between the examined variables. We provide solid evidence that the cyclically‐adjusted ratios perform better than the simple predictors in all forecasting horizons, both in and out of sample, and the modified variables capture more predictive components in returns. Through certain robustness checks including multivariate regression settings and evidence on excess and real return predictability, we thoroughly present the predictive components identified in our data set.

ABSTRACT This literature review examines the impact of micro‐savings, particularly through Self‐Help Groups (SHGs), on economic development, with a specific focus on Asian and developing countries. The review investigates how increased savings, especially in rural areas and among women, contribute to economic growth by facilitating investment and empowering individuals. A variety of studies employing diverse methodologies to explore the relationship between savings, financial inclusion, and economic growth are assessed. The findings suggest that access to savings services and financial inclusion measures significantly and positively influence economic growth, particularly in contexts where informal savings are prevalent. The role of SHGs in promoting savings and microenterprise development is also highlighted.

ABSTRACTThis article analyzes how the digital divide affects women's financial inclusion in 36 African countries from 2011 to 2022. Employing the quantile regression estimation technique, the main finding shows that the digital divide severely impedes financial inclusion. The negative finding is robust with respect to the use of women's financial inclusion sub‐indexes and alternative measures of the digital divide. The negative relationship is robust to OLS, Tobit, censored Poisson and truncated negative binomial estimators. Furthermore, we find that income inequality amplifies the negative effect of the digital divide on women's financial inclusion, whereas human capital mitigates the effect of the digital divide and improves women's financial inclusion. Above certain human capital thresholds, the digital divide no longer has a negative impact on the financial inclusion of women. Based on the quantiles, on average, about 10 years of schooling of the population is required to compensate for the unfavourable effect of the digital divide on the financial inclusion of women. Policy implications are discussed.

ABSTRACTLittle attention has been paid to the role of inflation and financial inclusion in influencing financial stability. These factors have become all the more important in light of the recent banking crisis in the United States. The lessons learnt from the recent banking crisis have heightened the need for financial regulators and bank supervisors to undertake a continuous search for the nontraditional determinants of financial stability to identify risks early and mitigate risks to financial system stability. In this article, we examine some nontraditional determinants of financial stability using data from 61 countries from 2009 to 2021. The first‐difference panel GMM regression method was used to estimate the model, and we find that greater financial stability in the previous period is followed by greater financial stability in the subsequent period in all regions, signalling the persistence of financial stability. The loan‐to‐deposit ratio improves financial stability in European and Americas countries, while countries that have a high level of financial inclusion, and whose banking sector has a high loan‐to‐deposit ratio, are more financially stable. Financial inclusion improves financial stability in high inflation environments particularly in African and Americas countries. High levels of financial inclusion impair financial stability during a recession particularly in Asian countries. African banks with a high loan‐to‐deposit ratio are more financially stable during a recession. Also, Americas and African countries that have a combined high financial inclusion and inflation rates and whose banking sector has a high loan‐to‐deposit ratio are less financially stable, indicating that high inflation hinders financial inclusion and loan‐to‐deposit ratio from improving financial stability.

ABSTRACTWe investigate the quantile effects of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on real estate investment trusts (REITs) returns in the United States. We use the quantile autoregressive distributed lags (QARDL) method on the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU), the market volatility index (VIX) and interest rates (INT) from March 2006 to April 2023. The results show that the impact coefficients of CPU, EPU and interest rates on REIT returns are significant in the short and long term. In addition, CPU demonstrates unidirectional causality with REIT returns across all quantiles, whereas REITs only show unidirectional causality with CPU in lower quantiles. Furthermore, EPU and interest rates show bidirectional causality with REIT returns across most quantiles. Policymakers and REIT investors can utilise the relationships and causality between REITs and CPU to update REIT investments, hedge against CPU and REIT stocks, construct a diversified portfolio and make informed decisions about the price movements of REITs in climate crises.